2012 Grand National Horse-By-Horse Preview

1. Synchronised

Gold Cup winner last time out when out staying his rivals and this horse is all about stamina. Won the Welsh National in heavy ground from Giles Cross in early 2011 over 4 miles and the extra 4 furlongs should be no problem. Has shown his class this year though with that Gold Cup win plus when also beating some decent Irish chasers in the Lexus before that. Off 161 here so he is 7lb better in. Does have to prove the fences and isn’t the strongest of travellers which may go against him. The longer he is still and thereabouts the better but will have to be exceptional to take this. No horse has won off 11-6 or higher since Red Rum in 1978 and the last horse to do the Grand National/Gold Cup double was Golden Miller in 1934. Adds a great dimension to the race though.

 

2. Ballabriggs

2011 winner Ballabriggs is now off 10lb higher and although a bold bid is likely, that may prevent him from taking the race again

Prepared all year last year for the National and led most of the way to win it from Oscar Time. Jumped well as a whole bar one mistake 6 out at Valentine’s. Won that off a mark of 150 and he has to run off 10lb higher this year. Only seen once since his win in a prep run at Kelso. He finished last of four but I wouldn’t read much into it as he ran really well and wouldn’t have been fully fit for it. It was a great pipe opener for him and the ground drying out will suit him perfectly. Hard to envisage him not getting involved though will have to also re-write the record books. No horse has won consecutive or even more than one National since Red Rum, although many have run well in defeat. Place looks likely but can see one or two being too good for him to win off his mark.

 

3. Weird Al

Very classy chaser on his day with 6 wins from 9 starts. On his day he is up there with the best, as shown this year when winning the Grade 2 Charlie Hall chase over 3 miles at Wetherby on his reappearance run. However the problem with him is he is a very fragile horse who is prone to problems and injuries. He’s a 9yo now and has only been seen 11 times on the track. Ran a superb race behind Kauto Star and Long Run in November but poor in the Gold Cup when pulled-up and doesn’t strike as a type for this race.

 

4. Neptune Collonges

Another who brings high class graded form to the table. Was rated 174 at his peak when winning the Lexus Chase in 2009 and also going well in a classic Gold Cup. Hasn’t won for a year now though, his last coming in the Argento in January 2011. His handicap mark has been slipping with it and has been running well in good handicaps on his last three starts. Plugged on well behind The Minack at Ascot and then when finding Hold On Julio too good at Sandown. But put in a great effort when just beaten by Giles Cross (possibly had more in hand) in the Grand National trial last time. Off a decent mark of 157 which in a usual handicap would make him hard to beat though he doesn’t look a strong enough traveller and I can see him struggling. Was a well beaten 6th in the Scottish National last year and I can see similar happening here.

 

5. Calgary Bay

Started to look a little disappointing with a number of below par efforts but stable hit for at the turn of the year and this horse prospered. Fell at the fourth here last year but comes in much better form this time. Won a good Cheltenham handicap over 2m5f from Hector’s Choice and added to it with victory over Shakalakaboomboom when striking late on stepping up to 3m in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster. 6lb higher here and not sure this will really suit though the experience last year may showing him in good stead. Needs time and space to judge his fences according to jockey Dominic Elsworth and whether you can get that in the National is a big question. Also has stamina to prove if he does get round.

 

6. Alfa Beat

Has 2 Kerry Nationals to his name off 137 and his last off 148 but only experience of these fences in the 2011 Topham saw him fall and not taking to them at all. Had a prep run over hurdles before running in the Bobbyjo and even though that would have been a trial for this, he never jumped well and was pulled up behind Prince De Beauchene and Black Apalachi. Doesn’t look very well handicapped at all either and the Kerry National is only over 3 miles so has the trip to prove too. Best left.

Prince De Beauchene

 

7. Planet Of Sound

Grade 1 winner at Punchestown in April 2010 but had a few problems and has only been seen 4 times since. Ran really well in the Betfair chase on his 2010 reappearance but was off after running a poor race in the King George. Made a great comeback when finding only Carruthers too strong in the always competitive Hennessy, travelling really well throughout. That was over just over 3m2f but he went a step backwards when no match for Nacarat in the Racing + Chase, only plugging on for a poor 3rd in a race that fell apart. A real class act on his day and in with a shout if taking to the fences and not handicapped out of it. Wouldn’t totally dismiss.

 

8. Black Apalachi

Loves it round here and added to his Becher victory in 2008 with a 2nd behind Don’t Push It in 2010. Also led for most of the way in Mon Mome’s Grand National before unseating at the 22nd.  Now back on the track after missing 2011 through injury to his tendon and he showed promise when chasing home what was the antepost favourite Prince De Beauchene in the Grade 2 Bobbyjo in February. A bold bid looks likely once again at a big price again though in terms of win purposes, others are more convincing as he’s not getting any younger and isn’t that well handicapped.

 

9. Deep Purple

Top chaser a couple of years ago and has 4 grade 2 wins to his name, including a Charlie Hall and Peterborough chase over 3m1f and 2m5f respectively. Lost a yard of pace the last couple of years and has struggled to get competitive at the highest grade while also being too high in the weights to run in handicaps. Dropped to 149 and was given a speculative entry in a 3m6f handicap at Sandown. Stayed on well though to win in what was admittedly a muddling affair. Couldn’t go the speed in a trappy Racing + chase before falling for good measure but marathon trips could be the way forward with him. Trainer does well in this and if taking to the fences then he’s not the worst 100/1 ever.

 

10. Junior

Junior attempts to be possibly the first horse to win at Cheltenham, Aintree and on the flat at Royal Ascot

Been aimed at this for a long time and failed to get in last year. Would become possibly the only horse ever to win at Royal Ascot, Cheltenham Festival and the Aintree meeting if he took this. Smart over both codes and absolutely thrashed a Kim Muir field in 2011 off 134. Wasn’t seen after that but this has been his aim all season and after a decent hurdle run, ran Ikorodu road really close in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. He gave the winner nearly 2 stone that day and that horse has gone in in great style since. Clearly well handicapped to win this for a trainer that has already won it with Comply Or Die. Jumps well but is very economical and low at his fences and that could cost him. A rhythm is crucial with him. If he takes to the conditions then he will be very hard to beat.

 

11. Chicago Grey

Top chaser on his day and has already had a big day with victory in the 2011 National Hunt Chase over 4 miles at the festival. Is always patiently ridden and came steadily into the race and push home from subsequent Scottish National winner Beshabar. Meanwhile he himself was well behind in that race after never getting into it and although running at a higher level since over shorter trips, has not really challenged. Was going k when unseating on his reappearance at Cheltenham but could never get into the Charlie Hall 2 weeks later when behind Weird Al. Poor in another handicap at Cheltenham when never getting into the race and has been trialing in Ireland in chases, firstly a 3rd over hurdles and then 2nd behind Rubi Light over 2m4f in a Grade 2. Mark isn’t too bad but this is his first time over fences and he is a desperately tough ride. Could easily get detached and never get involved just as much as he make a bid to win it. The stronger bet is he does the former though trainer does know how to win this, Silver Birch won under his care in 2007.

 

12. Tatenen

Been a credit to connections for a good 3 years and has given them so great days in the sun, starting life over 2 miles but improving for stepping up in trip. Had been with Paul Nicholls but was switched to Richard Rowe’s yard and hacked up in January 2011 off 137 but struggled to compete after that and needed a step back to Ascot and to a mark of 143 when taking the same race from the smart I’msingingtheblues this year. Held in the Ascot Chase after but wasn’t going to be winning that. Has big stamina doubts in this and also the fences to prove. Passed over.

 

13. Seabass

Almost an Irish version of Hunt Ball. Started with a rating of 95 but 7 chases and 7 wins on, is now rated 151. Regularly been doing his racing around 2m4f-2m6f so the marathon trip is an unknown for him but can’t knock the fact that he can’t stop winning. Has been beating average Irish handicappers so this is a huge step up in class too though connections know how to win here and we in the same situation with Papillion in 2001. Heartening that he won his prep race too over 2 miles against the decent Zaarito in a race that wouldn’t have suited. Hard to see him stopping here and should come into it if handling the fences and staying the trip.

 

14. Shakalakaboomboom

Less experienced than most of these but is steadily improving into a top chaser. Finished last season in the Topham but beaten 26 lengths after never really making a challenge. Different proposition with a year on his back though and followed up a handicap win at Punchestown in May with victory at Cheltenham in December. Went really well in the Skybet over 3 miles but outstayed in the end by Calgary Bay and although couldn’t win his hurdle prep either, I wouldn’t read much into it. top trainer has never won this and he has to prove his liking to the fences and the trip. Has come in for money though I feel he may come on a lot for this and next year could be his time.

 

15. West End Rocker

All keen Youngracegoer followers know how keen i’ve been of West End Rocker for a long time. Here he is on the way to winning the Becher in December

Many know how keen i’ve been on his chances and he’s been my selection since September. Was unlucky last year when jumping the first 5 fences well but having no chance when brought down in a pile-up. Made up for it with a highly convincing Beacher Chase win off 137 in December on heavy, adding to his Classic Chase win the year before. Many feel he needs heavy ground but there is nothing to suggest he won’t go on any ground and connections have said before he could be better on good ground. Stays all day, is well weighted, loves it round these fences and Wayne Hutchinson is 5 from 6 when riding him. Alan King has been in good form this meeting and deserves a National winner. Huge, huge chance.

 

16. According To Pete

Seemed to have lost it after a real dive in his form but has been superb this year with two big handicap victories, firstly in the Roland Meyrick at Wetherby when causing a surprise when out of the handicap and then the Peter Marsh at Haydock. Those races were around the 3m mark but both times he never looked like stopping and both wins were also on desperately soft ground, especially the Haydock win. Ran a good race when just ahead of Ballabriggs at Kelso last time and that should set him up nicely for this. Rain will help his cause, yard have had a season to remember with Cape tribulation and Attaglance both following up big Cheltenham wins with big Aintree wins. The only worry is if he can be as competitive off his mark of 149 and although it may be enough to prevent him winning, he must go in with an each-way shout.

 

17. On His Own

Irish pointer who took no time at all to be seen over fences but this is only his 6th chase run. Has won 3 times over them already though, firstly twice last year when trained by Howard Johnson, including a decent novice event at Ayr. Did however disappoint in his 2 big tasks in the Towton and then at Cheltenham behind Chicago Grey in the National Hunt Chase. Gambled on in the Paddy Power Chase on his first start for Willie Mullins but was brought down when beaten 2 out. May have needed that run though and was really impressive in the Thyestes off 125, still jumping a little novicey. Up 18lb now and carries an extra 5lb to that here which makes this a completely different proposition. Probably can be competitive off this mark but jumping and expecially inexperience is a major worry and he is one who may do much better if turned out here in 2013. Can pass over for this year though.

 

18. Always Right

Very lightly raced under rules but has shown he is very talented with a good win in the Grimthorpe chase last year and a win in a decent Kelso handicap chase on his reappearance. Also ran a very close 3rd to Beshabar and Merigo in the Scottish National, beaten just a length. Went off a very strong favourite for the Roland Meyrick at Wetherby but lacked a little fluency and stopped quite quickly around 4 out. Did exactly the same when travelling beautifully in the Grand National trial and trainer has seemed to put it down to his wind. That has now apparently been sorted and if that is the case then he is handicapped well, should take the fences, stays well and will be right at home on this ground. Comes with that risk of whether his wind is sorted but if it has then he could have a significant say.

 

19. Cappa Bleu

Former Foxhunter winner Cappa Bleu has looked better than ever this season and should be right at home over these fences. He should stay and he gets his ground

Foxhunter winner in 2009 for Sheila Crow but needed a season with Evan WIlliams before coming into his own. Went back to Sheila Crow who got his confidence back and it’s seemed to have done him the world of good as the horse has shown some serious form this season. Beat Tamarinbleu on his first start back at Haydock over 3 miles holding on grimly from a strong stayer and although beaten 22 lengths into 3rd in the Welsh National, the fact that he loathed the ground and only lost to the 2 horses that led all the way, shows how good a run that was. Great run next time at Ascot when jumping beautifully and running on for 3rd beaten just 4 lengths behind Massini’s Maguire but that will have set him up perfectly for this. Trainer has done so well with State Of Play in this (runs again) so knows exactly what is needed for this. Stays really well and being from a pointing background, should be right at home over the fences. Gets the vote of Paul Moloney and a strong bid is likely.

 

20. Rare Bob

Irish raider who ran his career best just under a year ago when chasing home Follow The Plan in an Irish grade 1. Not really challenged since though being well beaten in the Irish Champion Chase at Down Royal. Then had his supporters but failed to see out the trip in desperate ground when 5th behind West End Rocker in the Becher. Did jump pretty well and will come on for that experience. Miles behind Seabass next time at Leopardstown and then 14 lengths behind Prince De Beauchene and Black Apalachi in the Bobbyjo. Decent enough trial run which should set him up nicely and as mentioned should enjoy the fences. May well stay too as he has a Irish Grand National 4th to his name plus a grade 1 win over 3 miles. That was in 2009 but no reason he can’t run well here being a 10yo. Each-way claims at a price.

 

21. Organisedconfusion

7yo who seems to run his best races in the big ones. Ran a good 3rd behind Rare Bob in a Leopardstown handicap in 2011 but left that form behind when a taking winner of the Irish Grand National last year. National has been his aim since and after 2 hurdle runs has been back over fences last twice. Fell at the 1st behind Seabass and then kept on over an inadequate 2m2f last time, plugging on all the way. That should set him up nicely for a big run  here and although hasn’t yet experienced the fences, should stay well in taking to them and jumping well. Has the ability to get involved.

 

22. Treacle

Won the Munster National in 2009 but struggled off higher marks for quite a bit. Won off 119 in October but that gave him a lot of confidence and went on to run a good 4th in a Veteran’s chase at this course. Ran a blinder in the Paddy Power chase to finish 2nd after that and then chased home Quel Esprit and Roberto Goldback in a grade 1 over the same C&D after that. On a big upward curve so cannot be ignored for that reason alone. This is a last chance saloon for the 11yo but he should stay well and must go on many a shortlist.

 

23. The Midnight Club

Always had that bit of class about him notably when a gallant 3rd in the Albert Bartlett a few years back. Ran some great races over fences last year including a 3rd in the Jewson, 2nd in the Thyestes and victory in the Bobbyjo and on the back of that went in as favourite for the National last year. Jumped really well and was ready to get involved albeit starting to flag when badly hampered by Killyglen 4 out. Still stuck on well for 6th though. Not been in as good form this year though not really had a race which would suit him, for instance he was seen in the Gold Cup last time. 4lb lower than last year should help and the experience could bring him on significantly. Ruby opts for On His Own but Paul Townend is a more than able deputy. Went off at 15/2 last year and now goes off at 40/1 this year making him big each-way value.

 

24. Mon Mome

Shock 2009 National winner at 100/1 off 148 although hasn’t won since as his main focus is this race ever year. Was in the process of running a good race in it in 2010 but fell at the 26th. Was off the track for a good year and a half and missed last year’s race but showed he still had ability when chasing home Mostly Bob over 3m3f at Cheltenham. Form figures of PP0 after that don’t bode well but loathed the ground at Haydock when it was far too soft for him and was never going to get involved at the Festival in what would have been a prep run. 5lb lower than when he won it and clearly goes well round here so a good run is not out of the question with the ground jow drying out for him.

 

25. Arbor Supreme

His 3rd time round these fences but unseated at the Chair in 2010 and then fell 3 out last year when quite well fancied, but already looked beaten. was also pulled-up in the Welsh National between those 2 runs so that doesn’t bode well for him here. Has only had 2 hurdles runs this year but not shown much in both since joining Jonjo O’Neill from Willie Mullins. Mark looks very tough on him and would be a shock winner.

 

26. Sunnyhillboy

Regularly been gambled on but rarely delivered although clearly has a lot of ability. Shows he could handle the long trips with a good 3rd behind Organisedconfusion in the Irish National last year off 139. Aim has been this since then and but was poor when going off favourite in a good Cheltenham handicap in December in between two hurdles runs. Did however put it alright when staying on really strongly to beat Becauseicouldntsee in the Kim Muir off 142. Races off the same mark here so technically is 10lb well in and for that must go in with a chance if taking to the fences. Also cannot afford to get too far back so seems the kind of horse who will either get completely tailed off or win it. Dangerous though if finally fulfilling his potential.

 

27. Killyglen

I’ve been highly impressed by how Stuart Crawford has trained Killyglen towards this and he can go very close if staying up

Smart when with Howard Johnson but needed a few runs to get going for Stuart Crawford. Was in the process of running a blinder in this race last year before falling 4 out and this has looked the aim ever since then. Has had 6 runs since, 4 over hurdles while has also shown promise on his chase runs. Was just behind Cappa Bleu when 3rd at Haydock and then won a nice prep race over 3m2f. Didn’t beat much that day though. 5lb lower than last year boosts his chances significantly and last year’s exploits even though falling will have done him the world of good. Big player.

 

28. Quiscover Fontaine

One of JP McManus’ 4 and Willie Mullins’ 3 but looks the outsider of both. Only has 7 chase runs to his name, the last when 4th in the Irish National a year ago. That shows he stays well and jumps well but has been seen 3 times over hurdles since, winning a small race on his 2nd start. First time over the fences and although he may be a little overpriced at 66/1 as he stays, he may just be a little too inexperienced and the fact he hasn’t jumped a fence for nearly a year on course may go against him. Not a complete no hope but but owner and trainer have better options.

 

29. Tharawaat

One win at 3 miles over fences but that was a walk over. Got trip to prove big time. Form to prove too with only one decent run when 3rd in the Clonmel chase 4 starts back. Easily brushed aside and sorry if you have him in a sweepstake.

 

30.Becauseicouldntsee

Smart on his best form and seems to stay all day. Does love a big handicap and has a Cheltenham 2nd in the National Hunt chase to his name in 2010, a Paddy Power Chase 2nd in 2010 and last time a Kim Muir 2nd from Sunnyhillboy. Has had a few jumping problems though and only lasted 2 fences last year when falling, also worryingly taking a keen hold before it too. Fell again in the Paddy Power this year and again made a mistake even though runner-up last time. Stays the trip well and that is a big plus but jumping is a question mark. Decent claims if it holds up.

 

31. State Of Play

Will once again take part in this race after running fantastic races in 2009 (4th), 2010 (3rd) and 2011 (4th again). Absolutely loves it round here and the fact we haven’t seen him for a year is now worry at all. Reportedly very hard to train but is better than he’s ever been this year. Placed off 150, 145 and 142 in the last 3 years and off 140 here so another place is not out of the question whatsoever. Very solid claims again though whether he can win it is a big question mark.

 

32. Swing Bill

Good on his day and got a deserved decent success with a class 3 handicap chase win on his return backed up with a solid run next time at Ascot. Ran ok in the Topham when beaten just 20 lengths but could never get involved but could never land a blow in heavy behind West End Rocker in the Becher. Always has to be ridden from the rear and regularly doesn’t travel well and you can’t afford to do that in the National. A finish is the best you can hope for.

 

33. Postmaster

Been around for quite a bit but has always never moved from his level, his mark ranging from 120 to the high 130′s. Did win a decent handicap chase in August on good ground over 3m1f, holding on gamely from the decent Ostland. Had the whole winter off and came back to win a 2m4f Hunter Chase at Ludlow. Now off a career high mark which I can’t see him winning from. Also fell at the 1st in the Topham 2 years ago. Seen worse 150/1 shots but in reality this is a monumental task.

 

34. Giles Cross

Giles Cross has been in great form this year but the ground has dried that and that may go against him

Thorough stayer who has shown more class this year. Last season ran 2nd to Synchronised in the Wels National, just being ground down in the final furlong and then finished a very tired a far away 2nd in the Eider on desperate ground. Progressed this year though, firstly starting  with victory in the Southern National at Fontwell from subsequent winner Rey Nacarado. Similar story on heavy in the Welsh National this time leading all the way but just not staying as well as Le Beau Bai. However made up for it with a great win in the Grand National trial, beating Neptune Collonges by a neck but winning almost on the bit still. Runs off that mark so is 6lb well in though the rain hasn’t arrived in its droves as forecast. Although has won over marathon distances and his running style will suit here, the ground is probably not soft enough for him to play his full hand.

 

35. Midnight Haze

Lightly raced over the past few years but has served connections well with 4 victories over fences, his latest when coming from 11 months off to win a class 3 chase over 3m2f at Ludlow. Ran prominently in the Cross-Country chase at Cheltenhan next time and handled the fences well enough so should enjoy it here. Should run his race and give a good day out for the owners though off this mark it’s very hard to see him being good enough.

 

36. Vic Venturi

Irish raider who has been a credit to connections in the past. Came into the 2010 Grand National with  a grade 2 victory on his back and was prominent and running well when hampered and unseating at the 20th. Had a good preparation into the race last year but again had no luck when brought down at the 2nd. Showed he had a lot of ability still though when 2nd to Follow The Plan in a grade 1 in May and has been running in points since, winning 2 and then disappointed last time in a really good hunter chase when found to have mucus on his lungs. Raced off marks of 154 and 156 the last 2 years and amazingly is off 137. Aim was the Foxhunters but he goes into this with a big shout if getting into a rhythm from the front. Good each-way shout and best of the outsiders.

 

37. In Compliance

Rated 155 at his peak but that was nearly 3 years ago and is steadily on the decline now. Held up in this last year and made mistakes but beaten nearly 100 lengths. Did finish though and 4lb lower but pulled-up since behind Seabass and well behind Killyglen too since. Could finish but would be a big surprise if he even placed.

 

38. Viking Blond

Only 5 runs to his name over fences so far and always looked a chaser in the making. Shown promise already, winning his novice chase first time out and then running well behind Join Together and then Grand Crus at Cheltenham and Newbury. Was in touch in the Welsh National when a quite fancied favourite but pulled-up and faded badly. Dropped out badly next time in another race that should have seen him in good light so has those 2 runs to overcome. Can’t envisage a miraculous comeback in a race like this but possibly one for this in the future.

 

39. Hello Bud

Now a 14yo but been running good races for a long time now. Loves these National fences and to bowl along out front. Won the Becher in 2010 off 4lb higher and has contested the National in the past 2 years, finishing 5th off 140 in 2010 but pulled-up last year off 141. Was going well in this year’s Becher but unseated at the Canal Turn but in 3 races since has shown he still has ability. Hard t to see him win off what is a 10lb higher mark than he would run on in a usual handicap though a place is not totally out of the question.

 

40. Neptune Equester

Was fancied to go well in the Scottish National in 2011 but couldn’t get involved from 14lb out the handicap. Won a decent handicap at Haydock late last year after also running a good race at Market Rasen in a decent 2m7f handicap. Not as good since albeit in good handicap chases and hard to envisage him winning this from 5lb out the handicap.

 

Verdict

As tough a race as usual to get the winner in and the race has an extra dimension with Synchronised. The Gold Cup winner goes in off top weight and he stays really well though will have to re-write the record books if to win. Last year’s winner Ballabriggs should make a bold bid once again though no horse has won two Grand National’s since Red Rum and I think a place is the best you can ask for. WEST END ROCKER has been my long term fancy and the ground whatever it is should turn out to be won’t be a worry at all. He stays, jumps really well round here and has a great record with Wayne Hutchinson on board. Shakalakaboomboom has come in for support lately but doesn’t have the experience needed I feel to win. Next year may be his time and others such as On His Own can be put in the same category. Sunnyhillboy is possibly the best handicapped horse of the field coming on the back of his Kim Muir win and if staying and handling the fences, he can go well. Becauseicouldntsee has been there and done that and showed he is in good form by chasing him home in that race. Ireland have a strong challenge as ever and including the ones I have already mentioned KILLYGLEN leads them for me. Stuart Crawford has set him up beautifully for this and he was in the process of running a blinder before falling 4 out last year. He is 5lb lower this year and is one of the 5 I will choose. I can see Chicago Grey struggling as he is an extremely tough ride and it will need a bit of Carberry genius to win with him. Organisedconfusion can get involved and has shown he stays with an Irish National win to his name already. Treacle and Seabass can also get involved. Both are on massive upward curves and if handling the fences have a chance of winning. THE MIDNIGHT CLUB though was a fancy of mine last year and was running ok until being badly hampered by Killyglen falling 4 out. The experience should have done him the world of good and now that’s he’s 4lb lower, he looks overlooked this year at 40/1. Of the other Irish contingent, Quiscover Fontaine and Rare Bob are no forlorn hopes and neither is Black Apalachi but his stablemate VIC VENTURI has been given a very kind mark by the handicapper. He has been very unlucky in the last 2 years but now off nearly a stone lower he can definitely get involved. There was excuses for his below par run last time and he has been in good form in Hunter chases. At 66/1 you cannot ignore a small bet on him. Going back to the British runners, Junior looks well handicapped to win and is such a great horse to own but his low jumping will cost him I think. Giles Cross was looking interesting but i’m not sure he stays out 4m+ well and the ground has dried out now. Always Right has had a wind operation and had been promising before 2 runs where he faded very quickly so if that has sorted his problems then he must go on the shortlist. CAPPA BLEU meanwhile has been my other long term fancy and being from a pointing background, I strongly feel he will love this test. He stays all day and has been in great form. His stablemate State Of Play can definitely run into a place again too and the 14/1 for that to happen seems a great bet. Mon Mome could also be one that may place and he’s 20/1 to do that. At the top of the weights, Planet Of Sound and Calgary Bay have a lot of class but don’t look to have much in hand and both have stamina and course to prove. If the rain came i’d be more keen on According To Pete who has been in great form this year and Malcolm Jefferson has had a wonderful year. Neptune Collonges hasn’t been mentioned yet and although he is a class act, i’m not sure this test is right for him while Deep Purple finishes a strong team for Evan Williams and isn’t the worst 100/1 shot around. The rest that i haven’t mentioned can just about be ruled out.

Already Advised

West End Rocker 2pts e/w @40/1 generally (Sept 12th) 1pt e/w at 20/1 generally (Dec 30th)

Cappa Bleu 1pt e/w @50/1 Stan James (Dec 30th)

Advice

West End Rocker 1.5pts e/w @14/1 generally

Cappa Bleu 1.5pts e/w @18/1 generally

Killyglen 1.5pts e/w @20/1 generally

The Midnight Club 1pt e/w @40/1 generally

Vic Venturi 1pt e/w @66/1 generally

Place Specials

State Of Play 2pt place @14/1 Bet365

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  1. [...] Staking Plan « 2012 Grand National Horse-By-Horse Preview [...]

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