I don’t fancy too much today but it’s still a superb day of racing with the return of Frankel in a superb Lockinge Stakes.
3:05 Blue Square London Gold Cup
A cracker of a handicap here where Horse to follow REWARDED attempts to build on his Newmarket win two weeks ago by stepping up to 1m2f. The trip should really suit and he has a lot of class and speed to win this off top weight. The stats show that 10/10 winners of this race have run at least three times and the two favourites will need to rid that stat to win. Thomas Chippendale comes in with a hefty reputation after winning his maiden at the second attempt, beating subsequent Kentucky Derby 4th Went The Day Well. Obviously that is good form but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the best horse of these but didn’t win. HAJRAS is well fancied and the form of his last win has worked out well. He looks a typically progressive Mark Johnston and i’d expect him to go very close. Almuftarris has done well too and must come into consideration, getting off the mark last time on his first try at 1m2f. Expense Claim is also 2/2 over this trip and it’s hard to fully rule out anything in the race really.
Advice – Rewarded (Horses To Follow List 2012)
Hajras/Rewarded 1pt Reverse Forecast
Poptelecom.co.uk King Charles II Stakes
Good 2yo form beats progressive 3yo profiles here. Off the juvenile form, Saigon looks to have the strongest chance. He hasn’t won since his first two starts but sets a nice standard and had showed he has trained on well with a solid run in the Guineas on his reappearance. He does have a 4lb penalty to contend with though and looks plenty short. Balty Boys is best on official ratings though whether that rating is right is open to debate. He’s run well before here in the sales races but may come up short. The Nile, who had shown promise last year, got off the mark in great style on the a/w last time at Wolverhampton, beating a decent rival in the process. He could be absolutely anything but the step down to 7f doesn’t seem to be the best way to go. VAN ELLIS will be more suited by the trip. He went in to many notebooks after travelling like a good thing in one of the sales races here on his debut. He faded into 5th that day (Balty Boys in behind) but took the step up to 7f with victory on the a/w in Ireland. He looks likely to progress and could be absolutely anything, thus he’s worth chancing here. Aljamaheer came into a Newbury handicap with a hefty reputation last time out but the soft ground wasn’t in his favour. This race should show how good he really is.
Advice – Van Ellis 2pts win @17/2 SportingBet
Elsewhere, I don’t have time to really write in depth but SPICE FAIR (Newmarket 3:55) should go well in the Cesarewitch Trial. The penny has seemed to have dropped with him and he looked quite unlucky not to win last time when 2nd to Lifetime at Goodwood. Ground is no problem for him and even though he’s up 4lb, a big run is likely with Ryan Moore booked.
Advice – Spice Fair 3pts win @6/1 Coral
I really like DANK (Doncaster 7:45) who impressed me when winning on the a/w last time. Sir Michael Stoute has hit a bit of form and even though the race is quite good, i’d expect her to go very close off a mark of 88 as the maiden she won was a pretty good one.
Advice – Dank 3pts win @4/1 Betfred