Finding winners on Thursday will be tough with rain forecast to fall in the early hours of the morning. The ground at the moment is good but it could well be soft by racing.
Bearing that in mind, punting must be kept to a minimum as the ground will be tacky.It may also be worth going with more experienced rivals in the Britannia and obviously horses that get a good mile.
Fast Or Free looks a typically well handicapped Jeremy Noseda sort who stepped up to a mile and won well at Newmarket. He’s up 7lb and that should not stop another big run if he takes to the ground
Frog Hollow was eyecatching when third behind two decent sorts at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket but was well backed to win at Haydock last time and although again running into more decent types, you have to wonder does he have any more left.
Richard Hannon has five in this and the fact that Richard Hughes does 8-11 to ride Democretes may be a tip in itself. He has plenty of speed and has been tried over 6f lately, notably running on third at the Guineas meeting behind Mince but he was further behind tha rival next time over that C&D. He is better than his mark and now tries a mile but in what could be testing conditions, it will take some getting and he possibly could come up short. However he may have made the wrong decision as MISTER MUSIC could be really well priced. He has smart form on soft which includes over further but he also showed that he can run well over a mile as he did last time when third behind Chapter Seven. The leaders went off too fast that day while a really strong headwind meant that it cost to be up with the pace. The hold up horses finished 1245 while the front runners finished 36789 and 10. Mister Music was third making his run far better than it looked on paper and at 40/1 he must be worth a chance. I also like another of Hannon’s at a big price and that’s Graphic I have this horse down for a big handicap somewhere as he certainly runs as if he has one and his best effort this season was on softer ground on Guineas day when 5th in a really classy handicap. For some reason he ran well below par last time at Nottingham but he may just need a strong pace and he’s been totally forgotten now. Saying that I may just wait until he gets good ground and if he runs poorly here and then goes on better ground, he’ll be a huge price. Red Seventy hasn’t lived up to original promise while Lord Ofthe Shadows can win but in lower grade and down in the weights.
The winner of Mister Music’s race, CHAPTER SEVEN, must also have a great chance. He won a good race at Musselburgh which broke his maiden and after not staying 1m2f and then running on firm, he bounced back on soft last time, again which is good handicap form. Richard Fahey knows how to get one ready and he still looks nicely handicapped.
Switzerland (Horse to follow) was third that day and also has a nice run on heavy at Chester to back up on. He looks more exposed than others but has shown he can be competitive off this sort of mark and with the likelihood of conditions to suit, he can run nicely. However it’s very competitive and it may just be too much.
Trader Jack is of interest and ran a good race over 1m2f last time which suggests he will stay well. He won on soft last year but was very poor on his return on heavy and rain sodden ground won’t be in his favour.
Born To Surprise was a taking maiden winner this season before running down the field in the Craven. That was his first try at a mile and with cut in the ground but he probably does want good ground too. He has got a lot more potential than many of these though.
Forest Row showed a good attitude when breaking his duck last time and he has been given a decent opening mark. He has form on soft and although further may suit in time, he comes into calculations off a low weight. Cox also has Lucky Henry to boost his chances.
A stiff mile may be ideal for Prince Alzain who didn’t stay 1m2f and found 7f a bit too quick at Epsom last time, though he did run a really good race. His effectiveness on softer though is one question mark.
Mississippi was well touted to win at Doncaster last time but pulled hard and it cost as he travelled well but found nothing in the ground. He can go well if the strong pace suits but again faster ground may be better for him.
Piri Wango won his first two starts but was beaten last time albeit by yesterday’s Jersey winner Ishvana. Still he needs to find more and this is a tough assignment for his turf debut.
I’m surprised KAHRUMAN is so big to be fair as he ran a cracker in the Heron last time. That was a seriously strong listed race and this horse looked pattern class at least with more to come. Bearing that in mind he may be worth backing though the worry is ground. He went okay on it on debut behind Wrotham Heath but fast ground may be what he needs. Still he could be far better than these and can’t be ignored.
Advice – Chapter Seven 1pt e/w @20/1 generally
Kahruman 1.5pts e/w@20/1 generally
Mister Music 1.25pts e/w @40/1 generally