3:20 32Red Bunbury Cup
JAMESIE looks to have a big chance for David Marnane, a trainer that does so well in these races. He went very close at Ascot in the Buckingham Palace, leading his side home and he’s only 3lb higher here. The ground is fine and he has a great draw in 1 which should see him grab the rail.
Bonnie Brae has already come in for money and the soft ground looks to show her in the best light. She ran a great race in the Victoria Cup on her reappearance, the last time she ran on soft ground. She can go close.
Excellent Guest ran well in the Hunt Cup last time but is 4lb and now contests a career high mark on ground that he goes on but isn’t his favourite
Decent Fella caught the eye in the Buckingham Palace and is respected here with more to come from that run. One thing bearing in mind though is he does go best fresh.
Atlantic Sport has been quite a talking horse lately for what was a good win last week at Haydock in a striking time. Before that he ran close in the Buckingham Palace and everything suggests another big run is likely.
Belgian Bill was in behind the three mentioned in the same race as too were Imperial Guest, Castles In The Air and Bronze Prince. All four would have to move on from their runs in that.
Captain Bertie ran his race in the Hunt Cup but after his win at Newbury earlier in the year, the handicapper may have caught up. Mawaakef has a poor run last week to overcome though should be staying on well at the end.
Stevie Thunder is not without hope but hasn’t run on genuinely soft ground for a bit now. He ran well in the Hunt Cup last time though.
Harrison George is an interesting runner. Trainer P J O’Gorman had Albaqaa last year off Richard Fahey to win two big handicaps and this also ex Fahey recruit looks well handicapped if taking to the ground with the classy Harry Bentley taking off 3lb.
One I do like at a price is KING OF JAZZ who ran third in the Victoria Cup on his second start back but has been beaten twice since over 6f. 7f is better for him though and that run at Ascot showed ground like this is fine. A visor is tried and that may perk him up but he’s not handicapped out of it at all and is worth chancing at the price he is.
Advice – King Of Jazz 1.25pts e/w @25/1 generally
3:20 Darley July Cup
An open July Cup mainly due to the fact that the ground is pretty soft and whether that suits most of these is questionable. Bated Breath never seems any value in these contests though i’ve always said he’s better at 6f and he’s being running over 5f this year with a good win in the Temple and then a close second in the King’s Stand. That form entitles him to respect but many are saying he won’t go on this ground and though not ideal, I can’t see him not going on the ground completely. Society Rock has been talked about a lot as an unlucky loser in the Diamond Jubilee when missing the break but he is always a good few lbs better at Ascot anyway and the value has well and truly gone. Ground is the worry for Ortensia and Sepoy, the latter who was better in Australia but former with a little less to prove at the moment. Dandy Boy is well fancied to go nicely and his Wokingham win entitles him to respect even upped into this class though ground must be a major worry as all his racing has been on good ground or faster. The tough Libranno is another who hasn’t taken to soft in the past and he will do very well to match last year’s fourth while Richard Hughes prefers Strong Suit anyway who steps down in trip for the first time. This ploy failed for the yard a few years back with Paco Boy and he doesn’t strike as a real sprinter over 6f. Mayson has two poor runs to overcome but before then was progressive on similar ground. Two 3yo’s are entered, both of which fought out the finish of a group three last time. Reply represents Aidan O’Brien and tries a visor for the first time but with the ground as it is, FIRE LILY must have big claims. It is usually tough for 3yo’s but Fillies do better than the colts and this is a filly of high quality who is clearly best over sprint distances while also staying slightly further and also has form with cut in the ground. She is very professional and workmanlike and no stranger to big fields so the 9lb she gets from most of the field is invaluable and she must go in with a great chance. Conditions for Sirius Prospect look ideal and he ran his best race so far last time so a big run would be no surprise. I contemplated Genki but would have liked to have seen him in better form this season while Hawkeyethenoo isn’t good enough and Krypton Factor will most probably struggle in the ground.
Advice – Fire Lily 1.5pts e/w @14/1 generally