The ground looks likely to be pretty bottomless but it still should be okay for favourite Golden Lilac who is the best horse in the race and should land her seventh win out of eight. She was extremely impressive last time when far too free but still she beat the high class Cirrus Des Aigles and though now back down to a mile, she is a French 1000 Guineas winner and will not be done for toe. Obviously in the ground I wouldn’t be piling into her at around even money and there seems to be a lot more value elsewhere.
Maybe runs for the first time since a gallant effort in the Oaks, and a mile always has looked her trip to me. She ran well enough in the Guineas before that to suggest she still retains a good bit of her ability this year though being the early juvenile she was, it’s no surprise to see the 3yo’s catch up on her. She has won on soft ground so it shouldn’t be too much of a problem but Aidan O’Brien has had a few horses to flop lately and that’s worth bearing in mind again here.
Giofra has been supported due to Pricewise and was a taking winner in the Prix D’Harcourt on her reappearance. However she was no match at all for Cirrus des Aigles after that and though she is a good filly, whether she is second best is another matter based on that. Ground should be okay though.
The Windsor Forest form is tested with Joviality, the winner running here while third and fourth also take their chance (Chachamaidee n/r). She has decent form on good to soft ground but nothing on really testing and her best shows have been on fast ground so it possibly could not be in her favour today. Lay Time should be okay on it while Barefoot Lady clearly has her best form on faster.
Alanza is steadily progressing, albeit this would need a career best by some way. She just got up but had a bit of hand last time in an Irish group three but that wasn’t a great race and more is definitely needed. It was the first time she’d handled anything remotely soft too and it will be far more testing here.
Elusive Kate makes her reappearance of the season after showing high class 2yo form which included victory in the Marcel Boussac. She should be okay in the ground but she will more or likely need this run and the testing ground will not make it an easy first run back. WIlliam buick also prefers Joviality.
That leaves us to IRISH HISTORY who although needs to find more and is the lowest rated in the field, has had just three runs with much more likely to come. She is reported to be getting more relaxed and professional in her races and ran a great race when third in the Coronation Stakes last time from Fallen For You and Starscope. She showed a liking to the soft there and should take to it here as well where many others could really struggle. The 3yo allowance of 9lb gives her a good chance and she could easily surprise a few, particularly at a big price.
Of the French raiders Siyouma is clearly the worst chance of the three though can’t be totally dismissed for one so lightly raced and for one who is steadily improving. With fillies you never know what on earth is going to happen.
The race revolves around Golden Lilac who is an extremely good filly and should take all the beating. Her beating of Cirrus Des Aigles last time, especially in the circumstance was stunning and by far the best form on show here. Thus finding something for the forecast may be the best way to go and I even think with the ground being really testing, anything could happen. Thus a small e/w and forecast on IRISH HISTORY is advised. She’s got a lot more to come, this just being her fourth run and with conditions fine and a 9lb age allowance, she’s worth siding with. Maybe ran a great race in the Oaks last time and if taking to the ground has place claims though the O’Brien yard aren’t firing on all cylinders. Giofra has it to find on a strict form line with Cirrus Des Aigles but she’s improving and is interesting. The ground is the worry for Joviality who was a good winner of the Windsor Forest, showing a lot of battling qualities. She has the beating of Lay Time and Barefoot Lady on form but the ground could possibly change that. Alanza has a lot to find as too does the final french raider Siyouma while Elusive Kate is passed over by William Buick and will probably be all the better for this.
Advice – Irish History 1pt e/w @25/1 generally
Golden Lilac/Irish History forecast 1pt win