Still chasing that first winner but once again we went ridiculously close. This time it was Assizes who ran his heart out but couldn’t hold on in the final few yards. Gut wrenching defeat. Elsewhere, Master Of War ran okay. Colour Vision similar, Beaufort Twelve could never get into his race at all and Quiz Mistress wasn’t good enough.
2:00 Coutts Glorious Stakes
I’m a massive fan of Gatewood and sincerely hope he takes this but he is very short in what is a good race. Songcraft found Afsare too good last time and although the good ground will suit, he may find one too good. Dubai Prince though has been looked over by Frankie Dettori even though he is the one to beat on ratings. He looks decent value while Quest For Peace tries her easiest task for a while. Good ground should see a better performance from Dandino but he still has a bit to find at his best.
Advice – No Selection
2:35 RSA Thoroughbred Stakes
A seriously good renewal of a race that isn’t usually that strong. Gregorian just about sets the standard in what is an average bunch of 3yos. He has run two close Group 1 places the last twice but he wouldn’t be one i’d have too much confidence in for a win perspective. Trumpet Major would have a big chance if bouncing back from his poor Irish Guineas show where he reportedly coughed after. The ground is ideal for him though and he should go close even with a 4lb penalty. The step up to a mile should suit Aljamaaheer who I really rate. He ran a great race in the Jersey at Ascot but seems a little short to back tomorrow. Instead at nearly double the price i’m going to go with STIPULATE. On fast ground, he will take a lot of beating and with his draw being low he can certainly get a prominent position. He will stay well since he has a place already over 10f but he has plenty of speed for a mile and given how the race may pan out, he is worth a small interest bet. Elsewhere, Tales Of Grimm is worth keeping an eye on now back to a mile but he has seen the back of the selection the last twice. Red Duke could run into a place while the rest have to step up, Archbishop being one that is more likely to than others.
Advice – Stipulate 2pts win @7/1 generally
3:10 Betfred Mile
Trade Commissioner is a notable n/r in this and the draw will be pivotal given the usual new position of the rail. Thus being drawn low should be a real advantage and it’s lucky that the horse I had for this, ALBAQAA, has a good draw. Saying that he won on this card last year from a high draw. However he has been knocking on the door all season and is slipping back down to a decent mark again. He’s still 6lb higher than his last winning mark but is 7lb lower than his highest rating last season and on this years evidence he still has that kind of ability. Goodwood is a track he likes and he should go well. Swiftly Done is interesting seeing how bang in form and progressive he has been of late and from stall 1 even if his hold up tactics mean he could meet trouble in running. Interestingly, most of the horses drawn low like to be held up but one who doesn’t is Fulbright who is in the form of his life with three wins at Newmarket this year, the latest when taking a seriously good 6f handicap. He ran over a mile at Sandown this season and saw it out okay but the promise of an easy enough lead from a decent draw and not the stiffest of finishes could see a strong effort to cap off a superb festival for Mark Johnston. Even with that though I really can’t see him lasting home and I’m finding it hard to back him for a win. Excellent Guest comes with risks attached and seems a little short while Sir Reginald certainly has the trip to prove. On form Field Of Dream must have a good chance as he seems well handicapped still. The ground is fine and he should run nicely. Prince Of Johanne ran a little flat last week but if it’s simply the hustle and bustle he loves then he should go well but stall 16 makes things tough. Of the rest I like both Captain Bertie and Vainglory wh0 both seem fairly well treated and have good draws.
Advice – Albaqaa 1.5pts e/w @10/1 generally
3:45 Gordon’s King George Stakes
I’m surprised by the price of ORTENSIA even with a penalty as she is far and away the best horse in the race and finally gets fast ground. Her effort in the mud at Newmarket was superb and even though the course is a slight worry, her class should pull her through.I said Spirit Quartz should find this test ideal and the conditions are perfect for him. Still it will need a perfectly timed run to take this and I couldn’t have too much confidence in him winning as he has had his opportunities. A return to form of Tangerine Trees sees him go close. Masamah has a sneak to win this for the second year running. Hamish Mcgonagall is as consistent as they get and should go nicely while stablemate Confessional is in good heart of late. One thing of note is that there should be a hell of a lot of pace on in this race with Beyond Desire, Amour Propre and Stone Of Folca, plus others mentioned and not mentioned, all loving to race prominently. That should suit Angels Will Fall who won nicely at Ayr last time and gets weight from all being a 3yo filly.
Advice – Ortensia 2pts win @7/1 Bet365 & William Hill
4:20 Telegraph Nursery
Again the draw comes straight into play, severely hindering the chances of horses such as Janoub Nibras who will need a lot of luck from stall 15. Oasis Cannes meanwhile has an ideal draw, especially for his running style. He has less scope than most but is experience, has ability and should be able to push on and go close. The last run of Bircham can be excused and although beaten at 1/4, he can bounce back. Mystical Moment seemed to improve for 7f and has a decent chance from a good draw even if likely to improve for even further in time. A Certain Romance has a good draw but I’m liking PAY FREEZE who should also go well from where he is. He outlined himself as a decent 2yo on his first two starts over 6f, chasing home Sir Patrick Moore and then beating a subsequent winner by 5 lengths. He ran close dropped down to 5f at Royal Ascot and again over 5f on heavy in the Super Sprint. He now tries 7f which should suit and he has plenty of speed as well which could be important. Harry Bentley takes off a good 3lb and a lot is set for a big run. Party Royal attempts to land the 5th winner for Mark Johnstons but doesn’t seem too well handicapped. Boom and Bloom may not be badly treated now upped in trip but I may have a saver on AUSSIE REIGNS for the in form William Knight stable. He has shown promise on his first three starts and now is upped in trip on handicap debut. His breeding suggests improvement for the trip and for better ground and he’s not badly drawn either. He was behind Zanetto on his last start but gets significant weight and also smart 5lb claimer Darren Egan helps the cause.
Advice – Pay Freeze 2pts win @10/1 generally
Aussie Reigns 1pt e/w @20/1 generally
4:50 Oak Tree Stakes
A strange little race where Gamilati has a good few lbs spare over the field but this is her first run since Meydan and also she has a wide draw to overcome. Her class should see her good close and even with her dominance over the field, her price is pretty skinny. German raiders have done well over here but the prices are seeming to go and Survey doesn’t look that well priced considering how well beaten she was by Electrelane over in Germany. Gracia Directa has proven herself over here already and should stay out the extra furlong but again she isn’t well drawn. Regal Realm doesn’t strike as being good enough with all her form being to a very similar level. Dysphonia is not without hope with 7f being her ideal trip but i’m going to take a bit of a chance with the Italian raider SUNDAY NECTAR. She is really well drawn and likes to race prominently in her races and her form is up there with the best of the foreign raiders, coming off the back of a listed win. Ground should be fine and she stays well so she may take some catching if getting a good position.
Advice – Sunday Nectar 1pt e/w @18/1 BetVictor & Stan James