Theyoungracegoer.com Horse Racing from a Young Perspective

1. Imperial Commander

2010 Gold Cup winner who has been on the sidelines over the past few years, since pulling-up in the same race a year after. Made a great reappearance though when second in the Argento Chase, jumping pretty well but only just getting outstayed by Cape Tribulation, on tiring ground. Off 160 here after that run and that showed he has ability still but he’s certainly not the force of old. He should run well though and a place is not out of the question but it would be some effort to win

 

2. What A Friend

High-class on his day and one of two part owned by Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson. Fourth in the 2011 Gold Cup but again was injured after that and not seen until pulling-up in the same race in 2012. Ran a bit better at Aintree after that but still showed signs that he wasn’t the same force and his reappearance run at Kempton further added to his woes. Off a workable mark if taking to the fences and bouncing back it looks unlikely

 

3. Weird Al

Extremely fragile horse who is good fresh and very talented on his day. The last time he won though was all the way back in October 2011 and he’s only finished in one race since then. That included in this race last year when struggling and falling four out and though he ran well first time back this season when fourth in the Betfair Chase, he’s been pulled-up twice since then. So much to prove now and hard to fancy.

 

4. Quel Esprit

Won his fair share of races but always found out at the top grade but always disappointing in that he has never fulfilled the promise we all hoped we would once upon a time. Has been running fairly well of recent though, notably when third at Punchestown in April, but he couldn’t back that up in France a month later. Finished a moderate fourth behind Sir Des Champs after that (Joncol one place ahead of him) and though he will be fit and ready for this, he’s not one that screams confidence coming into it

 

5. Big Fella Thanks

A real stalwart of the race with three runs in it for different trainers though he’s arguably in as good a form as ever at the moment, running a career best last time Wincanton when beating Consigliere. Jumps really well too over the fences but has looked a blatant non stayer every year and it’s impossible to see the same not happening

 

6. Seabass

Highly versatile gelding and one of two strong runners for the Walsh team. Didn’t look a National type coming into last year but he duly relished it and he ran a cracker leading at such a strong pace for most of the way, to finish third. Katy Walsh is a fine jockey and though his chances are lessened by a 5lb rise in the weights, he had a good prep in the Bobbyjo, a great trial for this and another good run is likely.

 

7. Roberto Goldback

Bought with this race in mind from Ireland and duly hacked up on his first start for the all-conquering Nicky Henderson stable at Ascot earlier in the year. He went miles up in the weights for that facile success but he’s now only 2lb higher coming into this meaning he can go well off 152. His form coming into it is nothing special but the plan has always been the National for this sound jumper who could well love the test and adores fast ground. If staying then he is a very lively outsider for a yard amazingly still chasing their first success in the race.

 

8. Sunnyhillboy

Kim Muir winner of 2012 at the Cheltenham Festival and duly backed it up round here last year when going down by the narrowest of margins to Neptune Collonges. Been aimed with this in mind all season but has shown little in two runs this season (2^nd run very poor) albeit over hurdles. Was due to prep in the Gold Cup but was withdrawn late and the lack of that run may not suit while he is 10lb meaning that it will take some effort to win it. Place claims though.

 

9. Ballabriggs

National winner from two years ago but that slog of a race has seemed to have taken its toll on him and he’s shown little since. Sixth last year was his best run though and the National fences do light him up. That saying he is still 2lb higher than when he won it and in no way is he in the same form coming into it, opposable.

 

10. Teaforthree

A bold front-running jumper that looks a perfect type for the race. His win in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in 2012 showed all his class and some huge runs since then, notably runner-up twice in the Welsh National on heavy, have shown all his class. But to call him a mudlark would be untrue and for me he is better on this sort of ground. The fences will light him up and if getting into a rhythm then little will stay better than him. A must for the shortlist.

 

11. Across The Bay

Gives his all in his races either over hurdles or fences and jumps pretty well but he has a real tendency to run in snatches and will be real hard work to get going. Talented though and the fences could be right up his street but he’s 15lb higher than his last handicap win and preference is to leave him, especially with all his wins being on soft.

 

12. Join Together

Looked a novice of real potential last year especially when taking a couple of novice events at Cheltenham. Lost his way a bit after that albeit a few races in the highest grade though he didn’t show much when well behind Roberto Goldback at Ascot either. The first try at the National fences in the Becher though suited him down to the ground and he only just went down to Hello Bud on heavy ground when staying on like a train. He did get badly outpaced which is a real worry though and he probably would have preferred a bit of rain. Will have his supporters in representing last year’s winning connections but I’d rather look elsewhere

 

13. Colbert Station

One of the least exposed in the field and a rarity for the race in that he’s only run five times over fences. He has shown to be very good though especially when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas in a 28-runner handicap. Up 15lb for that but probably deserved to and he’s won over hurdles since. His inexperience could cost him on his first try over the National fences though AP McCoy has chosen him and he will have his backers.

 

14. Forpadydeplasterer

Formerly high-class chaser over two miles, as shown when he won the Arkle but nothing like the force of old and form has been nothing over further. Went on a strong run of seconds but finally got his head in front again in a minor chase back in November. That’s a street away from the National and he has everything to prove coming into this.

 

15. On His Own

A strong favourite for the race for the past couple of months but shortened further when winning a good Grade 2 hurdle in a race that was meant to be his prep. All was tanking along last year until falling at the second Bechers and interesting to see if that’s left a mark on him. Very talented horse for top connections and he fully deserves to be strongly respected even with just seven chasing runs in his career.

 

16. Joncol

Good Irish chaser on his day who has won twice at Grade 1 level, including the Irish Hennessy but he’s ten now and his years are seemingly coming back to him. Not been running too well since albeit last time in the very highest of grade and though he’s well treated on old form, he’s not one that looks built for the National

 

17. Balthazar King

A bold jumper who loves the fast ground and stays all day. Relished the Cheltenham cross-country course when winning at the Festival in 2012 and showed his love for Prestbury Park when taking a strong handicap over the regulation fences in October this year. Again couldn’t complain with his second to Uncle Junior when last seen in November over the cross-country fences and though the slight worry is a lack of a run (was due to run at Cheltenham but pulled out due to ground), he goes best when fresh. The National has always been a race that looks right for him he could go very well.

 

18. Cappa Bleu

Won the Foxhunters at Cheltenham a few years back and though his rules career over fences really didn’t start well at all, a return to his old stable revived him and he’s been a top chaser for the Evan Williams yard since. That included a very good fourth in it last year when  he was just about never on terms. Has been campaigned away from heavy ground all season  and ran okay behind Across The Bay on his return but his last run at Ascot where he had a number of these in behind, was very promising. 2lb lower than last year and the ground should be fine. His jumping is better than ever and though he’s getting on, this could be the year for him.

 

19. Oscar Time

Ran a huge race when second to Ballabriggs in this in 2011 but plenty has happened since then, notably missing all of last season through injury. Been well beaten on all his starts this season and though the National course will be more his bag, he is really getting on now and it wold be very surprising to see him win.

 

20 . Always Waining

Loves these fences and has won the last three Topham chases over 2m5f over the National course. Now tries the big one and though he comes into it in average form, he has done so virtually every time he’s won here meaning that’s no worry. The main negative is his stamina though with no win over three miles and though he should get round, others are very likely to see it out better

 

21. Tatenen

A good horse on his day for Richard Rowe but is more of a conventional handicapper than a National horse. His last win came in January 2012 at Ascot, a track he has a great record at while he unseated in this last year at the first Canal Turn. Not badly handicapped on his old form but will do well to get round and certainly won’t stay well enough.

 

22. Treacle

Fairly well fancied to go well last year but was always behind and fell at the 10^th. Didn’t make a great return to action when behind Quiscover Fontaine at Fairyhouse but he;s since shown he’s in decent knick with a win over hurdles but that was a very average race. Is 12 coming into this and he’s hard to fancy.

 

23. Lost Glory

Gone under the radar slightly for this by winning lesser races but four wins from five have seen him go up from 114 to 142. Impressed particularly at Sedgefield on his penultimate  start and did well to win a better race after that at Chepstow. Needs to improve again and this certainly requires more but the ground has dried out for him, he’s in good hands and he may surprise a few.

 

24. Swing Bill

Has his days in the sun but both have come in the amateur handicap at Cheltenham in November and not round here. Has been well tried over the National fences  and though he has completed the last twice, including when tenth in it last year, neither did he threaten to win. Did run okay at Doncaster on his penultimate start but poor at Cheltenham latest. Usually is held up but can run in snatches and though he can get round, he’s not one that will be placed in the race to go and win it.

 

25. Saint Are

Comes to life In the spring and at Aintree where he has won in consecutive years, notably in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in 2011. That and his handicap win on Grand National day last year are his latest two wins. Becoming well handicapped due to running on poor ground while his scratchy jumping has improved a bundle this year. But it’s still probably not good enough to handle to ruthless National fences and though he has the potential to surprise, to safe call is to leave.

 

26. Chicago Grey

Quietly fancied for this and has shown he stays all day already when he won a decent National Hunt Chase renewal at the Festival back in 2011. Went off the boil after that with no win in two years and quite a few poor efforts but he looked back to his best when causing a surprise in his prep run in a Grade 2. Usually held up and Paul Carberry being fit to ride is a boost for that, but he will do very well to avoid trouble with his style or racing and jumping. If he does though and he’s still going well in the latter stages of the race then he will most probably win.

 

27. Quiscover Fontaine

Done a lot of his racing over shorter trips than this but has surprised when running over these marathon trips as shown when fourth in the Irish National and then when in the process of running well last year until falling at the 17^th. Not been in great form this season but this of course has been the aim and though he isn’t the stable first string, he is decent odds to finish and a place is possible.

 

28. Rare Bob

Has run here a few times and seemed to love the fences without success. Faded on poor ground into fifth in the 2011 Becher and was unlucky last year when brought down at the fifth. The handicapper has definitely given him a chance though and there should be a decent bit of stamina reserves in him on this ground (Leinster National third). Not the worst of the outsiders.

 

29. The Rainbow Hunter

Good winner at Ascot earlier in the season showed that he is a talented horse but pulled up and had a breathing problem after that at Chepstow and ran okay behind Cappa Bleu last time but early exertions and poor jumping cost him. Has the potential to run well but his lack of fluency over regulations fences is a worry and he may struggle in this.

 

30. Becauseicouldntsee

A good horse on his day, the pick being a close second last year in the Kim Muir to Sunnyhillboy and also ran a big race in the Cheltenham four miler a couple of years back. That suggests he has the stamina for this but he has fallen in both his Grand Nationals to date, at the 2^nd and the 8^th and again a lot is taken on trust.

 

31. Harry The Viking   

The second horse in the race owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. Only 10 runs to his name and seven over fences but won his first two over fences (form strong) and then a very good second to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase last year. Disappointed though in the Scottish National when favourite though there was a little bit more promise at Cheltenham last time when he travelled quite nicely with this race in mind. He may come on a load for the experience this year though he’s not one to totally dismiss.

 

32. Mr Moonshine

A very talented and bold jumper who started his chasing career in very impressive style, winning a couple of decent novice events in facile. He lost his way stepped up to better grade though and has since found his level. Not won since November 2011 and this is his first try over the fences while he also has stamina to prove. Passed over.

 

33. Mumbles Head

Progressed well over the past year from a mark of 106 to 140 including a hat-trick of wins but then came a bit unstuck back on fast ground. Fell at the first on his first try over the National fences back in December at the Becher and pulled-up at Haydock since. Getting on now and would be a surprise winner even for a trainer that does very well here.

 

34. Nintieth Minute

Form is best around 2m5f or so but all runs on soft ground meaning this may not really be his bag. His last run on better ground was in the Irish National where he went off at just 10-1 but fell at the 15^th. Does jump well and ran a respectable trial behind Treacle meaning finishing is possible but hard to fancy for win purposes

 

35. Auroras Encore

Highly inconsistent but talented individual but regularly finds his form in the spring and stays well. Runner-up in the 2012 Scottish National in similar conditions though has run poorly in every start since meaning he is very risky if you’re supporting. Not one you can totally dismiss with his tendencies but will pass him over.

 

36. Tarquinius

Irish raider representing the 2007 winners who he joined not long ago and he’s done pretty well since rising a good 30lb since November, the best coming on his penultimate start when second in the Thyestes chase. All runs on soft/heavy ground and has enough question marks to leave.

 

37. Any Currency

Tends to run in snatches but does stay well. I fancied him to run well in the cross country at Cheltenham where apparently he had schooled well but he never seemed comfortable with it and was well beaten in the end. That doesn’t bode well for handling the Aintree fences either but did jump well here last year until falling at the canal turn. Place squeak.

 

38. Major Malarkey

Inconsistent but decent on his day and loves these stamina tests, the best of his talents shown when a close second in the Midland’s National in 2012. Run on soft ground since then and return to fast may well suit him while his stamina means he has a good chance of finishing. Has a tendency to jump one or two poor but if right then he can go okay.

 

39. Soll

Jumper superbly last time at Sandown from the front and stayed on very well. That was a performance he had promised to give as his Hennessy run (runners from that do well here) was very promising and you can certainly excuse his Welsh National run on terrible ground. Brought down in the NH Chase at Cheltenham when with Willie Mullins so stamina still to prove but he brings an unexposed profile to a race that has a few this year and he’s the likeliest winner of all at the bottom of the weights.

 

40. Viking Blond

Again gets in to the race at the bottom of the weights though he fell at the first last year which is an instant worry for this time. Has run two good seconds at Cheltenham and Sandown this year while his Welsh National runs can be forgotten.  He can complete though if getting into a rhythm but he lacks the class to go any closer.

 

Verdict

40 runners and again a lottery. The trends are going out of the window when it comes to the National and I couldn’t rule anything out solely on them. The classier horses are taking their chances now and they can never be dismissed because they know how to take care at these fences. On Your Own is one of the favourites and was going well last year to suggest he has it in him to go close this time. The money is coming again for Seabass who should give Katy Walsh a great spin again but off 5lb higher others a preferred to win it. Chicago Grey will need a lot of luck with his style of running and Colbert Station may get a bit of a reality check on just his sixth chasing start. CAPPA BLEU has been a fancy of mine for this since his fourth last year and with him being 2lb lower too, with the year on his back, I ‘d be disappointed if he didn’t go very well. He looks better than ever but will need to be at his age as this is probably the last chance saloon. Bold front runners are something I love in this and TEAFORTHREE and BALTHAZAR KING fit that category this time. The former is better for me on good ground even though he has run very well on heavy and it’s easy to forgive his last run. He stays all day and that should see him go close. The latter hasn’t been seen since November but loved the cross country course at Cheltenham and this could light him up as well. He goes best fresh and the ground has turned in his favour meaning for me he is arguably my strongest fancy. I don’t think Imperial Commander is up for this off top weight while horses who have run well in it before, Ballabriggs, Oscar Time and Sunnyhillboy all have tough tasks for different reasons. Join Together jumped well here in the Becher but got badly outpaced on poor ground and that is a worry while Rare Bob is not without hope. But my last place on the team youngracegoer bench goes to ROBERTO GOLDBACK. Nicky Henderson has not won this race before but he’s not one I want to dismiss with this being his aim all season. He was very impressive at Ascot on good ground earlier in the season and is now just 2lb higher meaning he’s well treated. I can see him jumping well and if he does then there is a horse here that will stay well, jumps well and will love the ground. I can’t ignore him at the price. Always Waining won’t stay for me while there is plenty that can run well but are hard to see winning. They include Quiscover Fontaine, Treacle, Major Malarkey and Harry The Viking while the unexposed types of Soll and Colbert Station will have their supporters but need to prove they can slog it out against battle-hardened handicappers and I think they may not be up to the task yet. Across The Bay runs in snatches as too does Any Currency and that is not what you want here. Saint Are and Auroras Encore are the potential surprise packages at really big odds while so many have doubts about staying well enough, namely Forpadydeplasterer, Joncol and also Big Fella Thanks who has failed to see it out in the past three years. Quel Esprit, Weird Al and What A Friend are talented but regressive horses who are hard to fancy while Becauseicouldntsee has failed to get past the eighth fence in the past two years. The rest would be shock winners.

 

Already advised – 1pt e/w’s  Balthazar King @33/1 Cappa Bleu @25/1 Teaforthree @20/1

Advice – 1. Balthazar King 2pts e/w @20/1 generally

                   2. Cappa Bleu 1.5pt e/w @12/1 generally

                   3. Roberto Goldback 1.5pts e/w @25/1 generally

                   4. Teaforthree 1pt e/w @16/1 generally

A really good fillies group 2 here which looks very open. IZZI TOP started the season well when winning the Dahlia at Newmarket two weeks ago after running keen but showing a good turn of foot and staying on best over 1m1f. This Oaks placed filly should relish the step up in trip, goes on all ground, should come on for that first run back and looks a top 4yo in the making.

She is really tough to oppose and i think she’ll go very close but I think I’M A DREAMER will too. She looks best fresh and absolutely demolished the Dahlia field in 2011 and although she didn’t win again, the step up to 1m2f saw a very close 2nd in the E P Taylor at Woodbine. Sea Of Heartbreak was in behind and that rival also chased her home in the Dahlia. 1m2f looks ideal now and that run also showed she will take to softer conditions although the ground is drying out. The two look the outstanding bets of the race and I really can’t see past them, meaning a forecast looks likely. If I had to choose one though it would be David Simcock’s mare who should have a decent pace to aim at and as already mentioned, is best fresh.

Timepiece should come on for her first run back but still I’ve never rated her as she was flattered to win the Falmouth as the race fell into her hands. She did back it up with a good run over 1m2f in France showing the trip is no problem but she will find it hard to dominate in this field.

Sajjhaa was 2nd to Midday in this last year and after a solid run at Ascot, then easily beat Myplacelater in a Listed race here. She was disappointing in her race after that and her stable are still yet to find their feet this season so she may just come on for this run.

Set To Music has progressive last year especially when moving up in trip and after an impressive listed win here over 1m4f, found only Meeznah too good in the Park Hill at Doncaster over 1m7f. She has to prove she can hack it in this at this trip still and although improvement is likely this season, this is a goo race and she still has it to prove for me.

Beatrice Aurore was seen regularly abroad last year after running a decent race in the Oaks and she was rewarded with a group 3 win and a place in an Italian group 1. That form doesn’t look outstanding and although she is entitled to improve for her first run back in the Earl Of Sefton when beaten by Questioning and Twice Over, she still needs to move forward to win this.

This will be tough for Sea Of Heartbreak who is a likeable filly but has a 3lb penalty to contend with due to her French group 2. That wasn’t strong form either though and more will be needed while she has twice seen the back of I’m A Dreamer and that rival may have the beating of her.

Last year’s Nell Gwyn winner Barefoot Lady ran to a decent level last year but was below this standard and her first run back didn’t see much promise, albeit on bottomless ground. Myplacelater was better last week at Chester when just failing to win the Huxley although on form last year has it to find with a few of these. Finally Mohedian Lady looked very promising last year at a time, especially when winning a Newmarket listed race over 1m4f. She was well beaten albeit in a very good St Simon Stakes and is the 2nd lowest rated of the field but more may be to come this year and it would be the biggest of shocks if she ran a good race.

Verdict

IZZI TOP and I’M A DREAMER look to have the best chances and a forecast is advised. Izzi Top impressed when keen in the Dahlia just under 2 weeks ago but she readily scooted clear of Timepiece (may get closer here but step up in trip suits the latter more) and with conditions fine and the stable in great form, she looks a very solid favourite. I’m A Dreamer ran really well in Woodbine when last seen on her first try at 1m2f, only just failing to reel in the winner. She was a really impressive winner of the Dahlia the year before from Sea Of Heartbreak and may be best fresh. Conditions should be fine and there also should be a good pace for her to run at. Sajjhaa, 2nd in this last year, may need the race this time. Set To Music has to prove her effectiveness in this grade at this trip but would be interesting if she did. Beatrice Aurore needs to step up on her form last year and come on for her first run back. Barefoot Lady needs to bounce back now on better ground. Myplacelater is the lowest rated on figures but showed more promise again at Chester last week while Mohedian Lady may run a decent race at a price although will need to step up.

Advice – Izzi Top/I’m A Dreamer 1.5pt Reverse Forecast

Mijhaar looks likely to go off as a strong favourite for this decent prize. He is very lightly raced for a 4yo so is clearly not straightforward and after a decent run in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, had been strongly fancied to follow up in a similar handicap at Newmarket in July, only to find Fulgur, who had in fact beaten him on his debut over 1 mile, too good again. He is extremely short even though he could be well above these and especially since this race is at a mile when he gets further. It’s also his first run since July and I wouldn’t be touching him at the price.

Fury has run with a lot of credit this year already without winning and it seems the handicapper may have caught up on him. He may not have seen out the 1m1f on tough ground last time at Newmarket so a return to a mile will suit and he also ran into the clearly well handicapped Captain Bertie before that. This will be tough for him off 104 though and he surely only has a few lbs in hand, even that.

Thus it’s better to look elsewhere and off bottom weight NEUTRAFA could be where to go. She could not have been more impressive when demolishing her rivals over a mile at Nottingham on her first run back and after pulling very keen throughout in listed race at Goodwood that was run at a crawl, she again travelled like the winner only to not get the right passage and then the tank ran out late on. A return to better ground will suit while more importantly she gets a stronger pace to run at. She has bags of ability and should be more than up to running to a mark of 93.

Justonefortheroad has started the season well, winning his last two. He beat the progressive Captain Dimitrios in April and then beat Rodrigo De Torres two weeks later off this mark in a conditions race. Off 99 though he now looks handicapped up to his best and improvement will be needed in this grade, especially as the form has taken a couple of knocks already.

One who is hard to judge is Bezique, an Italian import who could be absolutely anything. She did subsequent Arc De Triomphe winner Danedream on her penultimate start but taking that form literally is hard. It seems as if she didn’t enjoy the soft ground at all when last seen and something else may have been amiss as she’s been off for over a year since. She doesn’t look that well handicapped for this and the safe call is that she is worth opposing, especially as she  will need this. Money would be interesting though.

Cambridgeshire 1st and 2nd Prince Of Johanne and Stevie Thunder run, the winner for the first time since that victory. He won on his reappearance last year but the trip may be on the short side for him with all of his form at 1m1f+ and this being his first run at the trip since a 3yo. Stevie Thunder is now only 1lb lower than the mark he ran 2nd in that on but took a step backwards last time at Thirsk when holding up well in the Lincoln before then.

Although the form figures of Navajo Chief aren’t that inspirational, he ran a good race back on turf last time when 4th behind Penitent in a Listed race. He was rated 107 at a time last year, namely after winning a C&D handicap and although he didn’t acquit himself that well in Dubai, he is dropping onto a very good mark and conditions should be ideal.

Trade Storm seems to be a consistent type though he did find it tough to win off his mark last year. Connections tried him at 7f for one run last year and then at 1m2f which suggests they don’t know where to go to find any improvement and bacrs will probably have to bank on him simply improving for the winter.

I fancied Common Touch last year to run well in the Britannia at Royal Ascot but he never really got into the race on his first try over 7f. He did run a good 2nd after that though when back down a furlong to Webbow who seemed progressive at the time. More could be to come for one so lightly raced going in as a 4yo but Tony Hamilton prefers Justonefortheroad and he needs to prove the trip first too.

Godolphin had two representatives but Invisible Man is a non-runner and they’re left with Bridgefield who runs for the first time back from Meydan. He didn’t set the world alight there and I can’t see where improvement is going to come from on what he is already handicapped up to be.

One I haven’t mentioned and must have a saver on is TITUS MILLS. He was very smart as a juvenile but missed all of last year due to injury. He showed up well in the Earl Of Sefton for a long way and though he was last of seven last time at Kempton, again he is fully entitled to come on for both those runs. Brian Meehan has stated he expects a big run and he is going really well at home. Blinkers are on this time which may have a desired effect and he is dangerous to dismiss at a big price. Sos Brillante is the only other runner but is rated 74 and is miles out of the handicap.

Verdict

There is good reason to oppose Mijhaar who although is the least exposed and most promising, is having his first run back for just under a year over a trip which may be on the short side. He could be far too good for these but i’m more than willing to avoid at that price in what is a good race. Fury may not have much in hand to win this off 104 but should get involved. Justonefortheroad may also find this tough off his mark in a better race, especially as the form of his last win has taken a couple of knocks. Navajo Chief was an impressive C&D handicap winner last year and runs off a good mark. I can’t see Trade Storm being good enough off a mark of 99. Common Touch still needs to prove he stays the mile well enough while Bezique, who comes from Italy, could be absolutely anything though may need this. Instead i’m going for NEUTRAFA. I was really taken by her when she won at Nottingham on her penultimate and she pulled far too hard last time out off a very slow pace but still travelled extremely well, only to find little due to her early exertions. The stronger pace will suit her and she could have a lot in hand off 93. Cambridgeshire winner Price Of Johanne may find this test a little start on his first start back, while the runner-up Stevie Thunder ran well enough in the Lincoln but has a poor run to overcome from last time. Bridgefield needs to find more on his first run back in the UK since Meydan but at a big price, TITUS MILLS is worth siding with. His trainer Brian Meehan expects a big run and after missing all of last year, is fully entitled to come on for his first two runs back where he showed to still have ability twice. If bouncing back to his best then he could go very close off a mark of 100 and I can’t not have a little on him.

Advice – Neutrafa 1.5pts e/w @12/1 generally

                  Titus Mills 1pt e/w @25/1 Stan James

Bonfire

Impressive winner of a maiden on his first start at Salisbury on soft ground and built on that with a running on third in the Criterium International behind subsequent 2000 Guineas runner-up French Fifteen. Always been well regarded and comes here with significant Derby aspirations.  Trip to prove but it would be very surprising if he didn’t stay 1m4f at least, while both his runs have been on soft so . Seems to have that bit of class needed to win this though whether he deserves to be so short on form is questionable.

Dream Tune

Built on a decent debut when runner-up to Frankel’s brother Noble Mission last time at Newbury. No match for that rival who has gone in since though in listed company. Now needs a huge step forward stepping up yo 1m2f.

Ektihaam

Impressed on debut over 7f (form decent) and then readily beat high 70, early 80 rated rivals next time to make it 2/2. Given an easy time when not getting the clearest of runs in the Dewhurst and that run can be forgotten. Started the season in great style though when an impressive winner of a 1m2f conditions stakes at Newbury, settling in last and quickening up in taking fashion to beat the very well regarded Wrotham Heath by 5 lengths, although pretty fresh throughout. More to come over these distances as that needed some getting. This race is much better but he’s fully entitled to take his chance and he looks an extremely interesting runner. Ground quicker here but should be no problem as there is a bit of cut in it.

Ernest Hemingway

Represents an all-conquering yard who already have a very strong Derby hand already. Once raced colt who was an impressive winner of an a/w Dundalk maiden over 1m3f. 2nd is rated 75 so it’s not great form but he won by 10 lengths and he’s entitled to take his chance. 1m2f may just be about a minimum for him with notable stamina on the dam’s side in particular. Will have to be pretty smart to take this although if tasting defeat, he may be the one to take out of the race when stepping up further in trip.

Fencing

Well regarded colt who broke his maiden tag on his second start in a listed race, beating the smart Telwaar easily over 7f. Was put in his place seemingly in the Racing post Trophy though when third behind Camelot over a mile. Showed he had trained on nicely with a good solid run in the 2000 Guineas, running on eventually to finish 6th. 1m2f should be right in his compass on pedigree and in running style. Ground is fine and trainer is in great form after winning the Fillies’ trial today with The Fugue who also came off the back of a good run in the Guineas. Fascinating contender.

Mandaean

Bought by Godolphin after two impressive victories for Andre Fabre late last year in France. Runner-up on his maiden win is a solid yardstick though he improved significantly to take the Criterium De Saint-Cloud last time out after running green but always holding on. Shows he stays the trip very well already and far more to come this season. Ground is the main worry as he did win twice on soft ground and it is better ground here, although a little but of cut will help. Yard hasn’t kicked off too strongly yet either but remains a colt with considerable potential although he will learn far more about him here.

Ptolemaic

Listed race 2nd last year when stepping up a mile and ran a decent race in the Craven and then also in The Guineas, beaten only 6 lengths. Wouldn’t surprise if he improved for 1m2f with decent stamina on the dam’s side. Sire more about speed though. Got to improve a lot in a really good race but shouldn’t be slightly shorter than he is and wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever to me if he ran okay he’s rated fairly close to a number of these but is a significantly bigger price.

Verdict

A superb race where Bonfire looks worth opposing on price grounds. He certainly is promising and should stay the trip though is going to need to improve as a 3yo to win this. I’d rate him around the 3/1 mark rather than 2/1 and so it’s better to look elsewhere for value. Mandaean impressed in two runs for Andre Fabre and although handles quicker gorund for the first time, he could be absolutely anything. Fencing looks likely to improve for the step up to 1m2f after running  a good race in the Guineas. The yard are in great form and took the Fillies’ renewal today too. Ernest Hemingway represents the all conquering Coolmore operation who have won this three times in the last six years. He won a maiden over 1m3f and this trip looks the minimum for him so whether he can win tomorrow is a doubt but he certainly will improve stepped further up in trip. However EKTIHAAM is the selection. He really impressed when beating Wrotham Heath at Newbury last time on very heavy ground on his first try at this trip. It is well worth him trying this and although he hasn’t got a Derby entry, he can boost his claims for the race with a big run here with conditions certainly likely to suit. Dream Tune needs to improve significantly while Ptolemaic isn’t the worst 66/1 shot ever as he is officially rated 109 and should appreciate the step up to 1m2f with bundles of stamina on the dam’s side.

Advice – Ektihaam 2pts win @5/1 generally

 

I haven’t got too much time today as I do have an hour exam today which had to be from 2-3pm didn’t it. Anyway I have a few fancies for York today. The Duke Of York preview is already up though the money for Hoof It could be highly significant but I still stick by the fact that Libranno has a solid chance, but he’s 8 times the price.

 

1:30 Infinity Tyres Stakes

I’ve been wary in backing Sir Michael Stoute horses lately as he doesn’t seem in great form after such a poor season last year but he has had some good winners, especially in the 3yo department. The feature in the Racing Post on him highlighted how important 3yo winners in May are for him as it always sums up how good a season he has. He is represented by the very smart LABARINTO here. I really liked this horse last year and i’ll be surprised if he isn’t up to pattern class some time this season. He will come on for his first run back where conditions didn’t suit at all over a mile on very soft ground. Back on a better surface and over 1m2f, he should be wound up for a big run in what doesn’t strike to me as a significantly good handicap. Gatewood has been fancied for John Gosden but he certainly will need to step up on what he’s shown so far. Flag Officer was 2nd to Sea Moon over C&D on his last start and with that rival going on to do what he did, on that form line, he is the one to beat. He is up 9lb for it though and hasn’t been seen for just under a year, while Labarinto is double the price. Right Step who won last time out at Epsom on heavy is up 9lb and that may be enough to prevent him winning but he can certainly reward e/w support. The main danger could come from Kirthill who looks certain to give more this season though bar him i’m finding it hard to give anything else a real good chance.

Advice – Labarinto 3pts win @8/1 BetVictor & Bet365

 

 

2:00 William Birch & Sons Construction Stakes

York Glory is an interesting runner and more is to come with this rival this year but he will need to in what is a good race and the fact this is his first run back. I backed Shropshire last time when a close 2nd in a good Newmarket handicap and he runs the same mark with Matthew Lawson also taking off 5lb. He was drawn on the right side but that stills entitles him to significant respect. However on his start where he was 8th at Pontefract, COOLMINX was ahead of him in 5th. Both were drawn badly and made the wrong decision to go wide and it has been wise to follow all horses that have done that. He should come on for that run and still looks progressive after winning the Ayr Bronze Cup last year. I’m a fan of New Planet who could easily be better than his mark of 100 while Escape To Glory is finally fulfilling some of his potential though i’m still not fully convinced he’s up to winning off 84. More could come from Barnet Fair last year who finished 4th in a handicap behind the favourite last year but could go closer over 6f.

Advice – Coolminx 1.25pts e/w @12/1 generally

 

 

4:45 McArthurglen´s York Designer Outlet Stakes

Richard Fahey has stated he will be disappointed if BACCARAT can’t go very close here and off 75 he could be extremely well handicapped. He has to prove his liking to turf though 7f looks ideal and although the form isn’t ideal he is still certainly worth chancing. The form of Tartiflette’s 2nd to Gregorian has been franked by that rival running an eyecatching race in the French 2000 Guineas. He’s up 5lb but that should not stop a big run now on better ground. Nameitwhatyoulike has improved for the step up to a mile and the drop to 7f may not suit in good grade. Three Am Tour and Grizzle both ran good rasces on their reappearances and both should come on for them. Off 6lb extra, Warfare comes into consideration but it’s worth chancing e/w with an outsider and BYRONIC HERO is that rival. I’m a big fan of Jedd O’Keefe as a trainer and I backed this horse last time at Pontefract but he missed the start and had no chance, until making significant headway near the end. He seemed to badly need that race and he looks really well handicapped now after being dropped 2lb for that run. The step up to 7f is unproven but it seems as if he will get it and he is worth a squeak at a huge price.

Advice – Baccarat 3pts win @13/2 Ladbrokes

                  Byronic Hero 1.25pts e/w @33/1 BetVictor

A good sprint in stall which sees the return of Hoof It who made steady progression last year into group class, finishing the year with a very tight 3rd in the Haydock Sprint Cup behind Bated Breath and Dream Ahead. Added in with a close run in the Nunthorpe and convincing handicaps wins here in the Skybet Dash and in the Steward’s Cup, on form he must be close to being the one to beat. My worry is that he was beaten the only two times last year he ran on softer than good and he may just need this.

One who won’t need this race and has made huge progress already this season is Mayson who has won his last two starts, both at Newmarket. Firstly he was an easy winner of the Abernant over 6f and showed the drop to 5f was no problem when taking the Palace House in good style from Definightly. He was 3rd on debut but may have needed that, as seen by his beating of Jimmy Styles on his run after. The ground is perfect and he looks best at 6f and he goes in with a huge shout.

The Cheka beat Mayson at Doncaster and hasn’t been seen since but he may have his work cut out to confirm that form. It was good to see him take to sprinting though after running most of the time over slightly further. Again the ground should be absolutely fine for him, with Eve Johnson Houghton’s gelding going on virtually all surfaces. On figures he will need to improve but if running to the same level as he did last time, he goes in with an each-way chance.

Last year’s Golden Jubilee winner Society Rock showed himself to be a top sprinter on his day and thoroughly deserved that notable group 1 win. He confirmed the form over in France when 2nd to Immortal Verse in the Maurice De Gheest. He ran a solid race in the sprint cup at Haydock when 4 lengths behind Hoof It but was below par after that at Ascot and then in Hong Kong. He now has to bounce back after that and he was a beaten favourite on his reappearance last year but on figures should get involved with ground being no problem.

Although more rain would suit, Definightly  should come on for his first run back when behind Mayson and could also be one to go close. If the rain did come he’d be of significant interest though he does need to find more in better grade. The trip is ideal however with the ground now edging towards good, that may be enough to hinder his chances

The 3yo’s have a number of representatives, the most significant being French raider Restiadargent. It’s hard to judge her form in France but she did win twice at 6f while also running well over 7f, last time behind 1000 Guineas flop Mashoora. She was officially beaten a length that day but that flatters here as the winner was heavily eased. She has won on better ground before but also has strong form with cut while she also gets a good weight allowance. Still her form doesn’t look that inspiring at a glance and this is a whole new test against seasoned sprinters.

Bannock has been well tried already this year but was disappointing behind The Cheka and Mayson at Doncaster. He ran well next time at Newmarket over 7f which regularly seems to stretch him while then ran Gusto close on the a/w last time. He has the ability to win, especially in receipt of 9lb but he may still need to improve.

Similar can be said for Bogart who was well behind the French raider when last seen in November. Before that he had Bannock in behind when winning the 2yo Trophy at Redcar and he also won a valuable sprint here before that. It’s always tough for 3yo sprinters though and he needs to find more.

However one who looks overpriced is LIBRANNO who has always looked like a sprinter to me. He went extremely close in the July Cup and although I felt at the time he was flattered by that, he justified it with a great run on Champion’s Day when behind Deacon Blues. He was poor next time on soft at Doncaster but has never seemed to enjoy that ground and the same can be said for his reappearance. He has won on good to soft though and the drying ground looks an absolute blessing. His form figures at 6f are 11654343 and that includes runs at the highest level and he looks really well priced for one so talented.

Elnawin has been off for just under a year but was a very good winner of a listed race on that start on soft. This kind of race could suit but she looks the stable second string and i’ll be surprised if she didn’t come on a lot for this.

Tiddliwinks was well beaten by Mayson last time while Sirius Prospect has also been behind that rival the last twice. He hasn’t lived up to last year’s expectations but if he does then he comes into the reckoning but he’s not a betting proposition until showing it.

The consistent Doncaster Rover is usually a cut under this standard and his best form is at 7f anyway while Soul, who represents last year’s winning connections was an impressive winner of a handicap at Meydan in March but put up a no show on the main night itself. A return to turf will suit and although he may need to find a bit more, there is certainly a possiblity he can do that.

Verdict

A few may come on for this run and Hoof It comes under that category. On form and figures he must go close. The same can be said for Golden Jubilee winner Society Rock who was a beaten favourite last year on his reappearance. It’s tough to oppose Mayson who looks a sprinter going places with back-to-back victories at Newmarket to his name and conditions to suit. He was beaten by The Cheka on his first start back but seemed to need that run and that form may be turned over. French raider Restiadargent is a fascinating runner while Bannock and Bogart, the two other 3yo’s may find this tough. Definightly ran well last time behind Mayson in the Palace House and should come on for this but the gorund is going against him. However LIBRANNO looks great value for one that seems to at his best over 6f. The drying ground is perfect for him and he went close twice in big sprints last year. if running to that form he can go very close. Sirius Prospect has a bit to prove after two below par efforts behind Mayson this season. Soul is another interesting runner who could be anything while Elnawin will need this. Doncaster Rover and Tiddliwinks will probably come up short.

Advice – Libranno 1.5pts e/w @18/1 BetVictor

                  Mayson/Libranno 0.5pts reverse forecast

Ascot

2:50 Bovis Homes Fillies’ Handicap

Moone’s My Name looks a very interesting runner and is hard to oppose but on price grounds, MAKING EYES is worth backing. She has already been backed but I’m a big fan of this filly ever since I saw her thrash her rivals in a Salisbury maiden on her first run for Hugo Palmer last year, also on soft ground. She beat the very smart Electra Star that day by 6 lengths. She was out of sorts late last year but may just be a filly to catch fresh and the break may have done her a lot of good. Certral needs to find more but started the season well with a 2nd and the main competition could come from Free Verse and Shesastar.

Advice – Making Eyes 3pts win @13/2 Sporting Bet

Haydock

2:00 Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle

A good hurdle to start with and The Druids Nephew has been fancied after running a great 6th in the Albert Bartlett. There is no doubt on that form he is well handicapped but it’s hard to judge whether that was a fluke and he does seem to be slightly better on faster ground. Cantlow would have a superb chance but the ground is a major worry. After interviewing Dominic Elsworth we talked about this horse and he said he doesn’t like the ground soft. The Tracey Shuffle needs to prove he’s good enough and judging by past form Nagpur is closely matched with him. But even though he lumps top weight, it is impossible to oppose CROSS KENNON who loves it round here. He was 2nd to Restless Harry 2 starts ago, the race he hacked up in the year before and off 150, he isn’t handicapped out of it. Added in with his record on this ground, which is virtually flawless, he looks great bet. Victor’s Serenade is a non-runner and he seemed a big danger. I can’t be having American Trilogy who doesn’t seem to have much in hand. AMERICAN SPIN comes off a huge run behind Cape Tribulation at Aintree is a big danger, with this ground likely to suit a lot. He won his only race on soft, albeit an average one but more could be to come on this surface and he is worth backing too. Knockara Beau is another who is not handicapped out of it.

Advice – Cross Kennon 1.5pts e/w @14/1 Bet365

                  American Spin 2pts win @11/1 William Hill

 

3:40 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Swinton Hurdle)

A really good handicap hurdle this and Red Merlin is the likely favourite. He ended his run on four wins in a row last time but ran a great race in defeat in Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. He is still on a good mark if he wants to take advantage of it but he has to show he can transfer that form to soft. I’d much prefer the chances of Charm School who has already proven his liking to the ground and he has already gone close with a few of these, including the favourite. Saphir River has an outstanding chance if handling the drop in trip but it’s very interesting Tom Scudamore rides for him rather than David Pipe. Nicky Henderson has a good hand for this with All The Aces who has come in for  money already due to pricewise. Aintree winner Lifestyle has a 6lb rise to handle but ground should be fine. However i’m at a loss as to why PETIT ROBIN is such a big price. He made a great reappearance when not far behind Dream Esteem at Newbury (gets a 5lb swing now) and he was well behind a number of these at Ayr, that was on good ground which he has a terrible record. On good he has been placed just once in 7 starts but on soft he’s been placed on both starts and he won his only start on very soft. Jeremiah Mcgrath takes off 5lb and he is ridiculously well handicapped anyway so why he is such a big price is beyond me.I also think PAINTBALL is overpriced as he was so impressive when winning the Imperial Cup and he had absolutely no chance at Aintree last time when virtually coming down twice in the early stages. He can be excused that run and once again he is great value. He has been placed on soft so that should be no problem and I can’t not have a small e/w on him. I can’t be having Dreambrook Lady at all who I think was flattered last time on soft and needs better ground. Ubi Ace needs to bounce back after two poor runs while Arab League will run his race and that may be enough for a place. Ifyouletmefinish looks a decent price and could surprise a few.

Advice – Petit Robin 2pts e/w @25/1 generally

                  Paintball 1pt e/w @20/1 Vcbet

 

4:50 Pertemps Handicap

ASSIZES (Flat horses to follow List 2012) runs here and off his mark, looks to have an outstanding. He will come on for this and wants further so it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he was beaten, though ground should be okay enough and his stamina will come into play. Dance The Rain seems to be the main danger but the form of his last 2nd when in front of Mr Spiggott and Bountiful Girl isn’t working well and Assizes could be a street ahead.

Advice – Assizes (Flat Horses To Follow List 2012)

 

 

 

Lingfield

2:10 Betfred Mobile Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes

Although we have switched to the polytrack due to the turf being unraceable, we still have some decent cards. Chachamaidee is clearly the one to beat judging on her strong form last year which including a group 3 win at Goodwood and 2nd’s to Sahpresa and Strong Suit at Newmarket. However Henry Cecil’s horses have regularly seemed to need their first run back and i’d expect the same. FALLEN FOR YOU is rated 3lb lower but gets a 12lb swing due to allowances and penalties and that certainly should be enough. Added in with the fact she will be match fit for this, she looks to have a great chance. Best Terms failed to stay 7f in very soft ground last time and although this surface will suit, she still has to prove the trip against horses that stay it well. If putting Meydan form behind Dysphonia has a chance but the others are going to need to improve a lot to get involved.

Advice – Fallen For You 4pts win @3/1 generally

 

2:40 Betfred “The Bonus King” Oaks Trial Stakes

No bet here as I think VOW will win this but her price is right for me. She really impressed when beating the decent yardstick Everlong last time at Newbury and 1m4f looks right up her street, especially as it didn’t seem like the penny dropped for quite a long time. She made by far the biggest impression on debut of these and she could be anything. Estrela could be best of the rest though Colima also seemed smart when winning a soft ground Nottingham maiden in November. Zimira has shown already she handles the surface but her and Apothecary in particular have to show they are good enough.

No Advice

 

3:10 Betfred Derby Trial Stakes

SHANTARAM (Horses to Follow List 2012) goes here after being pulled out of a maiden in the week at Chester. He travelled really well when just getting edged out by Model Pupil in a Newmarket maiden. The latter then went very close at Chester and Shantaram’s price represents that. I think he’ll win and can’t oppose but his price is slightly short. Main Sequence really impressed at Newmarket last time and he could be anything. On a strict form line with Mickdaam and Model Pupil, Rougemont is very closely matched with the favourite but he was helped by getting the rail at Newmarket last time. Ed De Gas was deeply impressive last time and is another who could be anything. The Derby Trial Goldoni won at Epsom was nowhere near as strong while the rest have it to find.

Advice – Shantaram (Flat Horses To Follow List 2012)

Fallen For You (11/4) Vow (13/8) Shantaram (15/8) 2pt win Treble @29.19/1 Boylesports

 

 

Nottingham

3:50 Weatherby’s Bloodstock Insurance Kilvington Fillies’ Stakes

The return of ARTISTIC JEWEL (Horses To Follow list 2012) and she has been given a good opportunity to start her season in style. I’m a huge fan of her as she stays well too and could be anything while she won a good Salisbury Conditions race on soft last year over Arnold Lane, with Gusto back in 4th. Roger Sez could be a danger on this ground but she was well beaten on her reappearance while on figures Ladies Are Forever is interesting but she unplaced on her only start on soft. Pepper Lane goes well fresh but has to improve while Swiss Dream is of interest.

Advice – Artistic Jewel (Flat Horses To Follow List 2012)

 

A fiercely competitive race with the field being 12/1 bar one and nine horses being separated between there and 14/1.

To find the winner you clearly need a well handicapped horse, one that goes on the ground which seems to be testing, stays 7f well and on trends a horse aged 4-5. With the the rain we’ve had the ground is pretty soft and Ascot drains better on the far side, so low numbers should be at an advantage

Tariq Too is the clear favourite at the moment and virtually fits all the above. The 5yo gelding has won three of his last five including on his last two starts and on his seasonal reappearance. He took a Goodwood handicap from Valencha last year (went in after) while the 2nd and 3rd have run well enough in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He had plenty in hand that day and the 6lb rise seems fair. More crucial is the fact that both those wins were on soft and he seems to relish the ground. All in all his challenge looks very strong.

Since joining Brian Ellison, Global Village has been a revelation with a good 7f victory at Leicester and then running really well at Newbury over a mile when chasing home Captain Bertie and Fury. He is only up 2lb for that run which seems very fair and he is also well drawn, meaning he must come into consideration.

I’m very keen on the chances of BONNIE BRAE who really impressed when a runaway winner of a Doncaster handicap in November on soft. She beat Docofthebay that day who followed up with a Listed win the week after, giving the form a strong look to it. She is off 6lb higher than but that should be easy enough to contend with especially on a soft surface which she has run on twice and won both times. Thus conditions look absolutely ideal and she also could have the rail to help her being in stall 1.

Pastoral Player goes off top weight after some very game efforts in all the top handicaps last year. However off 101 he convincingly took the Challenge Cup over 7f in October. He is up to 107 meaning he will clearly have to put up a group performance to win this but he should run his race with conditions no problem.

Last year’s winner Hawkeyethenoo represents the in form Jim Goldie in attempting to win this race for the 2nd year in a row. That was off 96 and he also had the experience of a past run which he doesn’t here. The ground shouldn’t be too much of a problem though his best form is on faster however a stands side draw may not be the place to be.

King Of Jazz has the ideal profile of a horse for this race and will come on a lot for his first run when when a very eyecatching 3rd on what was a patient ride by Jamie Spencer. He looks very well handicapped although is untried on anything worse than good and that would be the major worry, even though he is also well drawn.

After the Marwan Koukash cavalry charge at Chester, the owner attempts to take another significant handicap and is double represented by Brae Hill and Fathsta. The former surprised when winning the Lincoln last time over a mile and he ran a blinder in this last year when not ideally drawn to finish 4th. That was on faster ground and even though he has been placed on soft, he is unproven at this level on it and after his big win last time, is now on a career high mark. Fathsta ran okay in his seasonal reappearance and he should come on for that but he seems to be a better horse at 6f and also has his best form on a faster surface.

Lightning Cloud was very progressive last year, winning five times from seven starts, starting off 75 but ending with a rating of 95 after winning a Doncaster handicap in September. More could be to come this year and that would bring him into it however he doesn’t look that well drawn. He ran  a good race here on his only try of worse than good ground though ground this heavy is still an unknown.

Excellent Guest consistently runs well here although he could only finish 10th in this last year. He did bounce back with a good 2nd at Royal Ascot though, more importantly on soft ground. Another 2nd came after that in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and he ran well here again on Champions Day even though he could only finish 13th. It wouldn’t surprise if he had more to offer but he will need to off 95 and he is drawn on the near side which doesn’t look ideal.

WHITE FROST seems to be another horse that has an ideal profile for this. He won his first three starts last year, including a good handicap on soft at Newmarket when beating the smart My Freedom. He was behind lightning Cloud at Doncaster and ran his races on his other two starts, including here on Champions Day but has now only turned a 4yo and far more could be to come. He has shown his liking to soft ground on his only start and with an ideal draw, he could show to be well ahead of his mark.

Nasri has been supported already and I can see why as he ran a blinder in this last year when 3rd off 2lb higher than what he runs on now. His pedigree shows a liking to soft ground (did win a Hamilton conditions race on it last year) and while his form figures don’t bode too much confidence, he ran well on his reappearance and then could never get involved in a race at Pontefract which has thrown good runs from similar types who were unlucky, including Shropshire last week and Grissom at Chester. A good claimer takes off 7lb though the worry could be the draw.

Cool Marble runs for the Coral Champions Club and is reportedly going well at home. His French form is hard to judge but at a glance it shows that he can go well with the ground as it is and off a mark that may be quite lenient. He is well drawn and the very good Raul Da Silva takes off 5lb. His best form is over a mile so he should be staying on well at the end and he has each-way claims at a price.

On the far side of the draw, which seems to be the place to be, there is Benandonner who has caused a surprise before. He is well weighted but the ground is a major worry. The bottom weights such as Dhaular Dhar, Fantasy Gladiator and Space Station look to have a tough ask on their hands while poor draws and not top class form could hinder horses such as Pravda Street, New Leyf, Kakatosi, Rodrigo De Torres and Advanced.

Although not a selection, it’s worth keeping an eye out on Mabait who is extremely well handicapped if finding some form. He was a close 2nd in this two years back but after not being seen much last year, has been well out of form for David Simcock in Dubai. The horse seems to be a bit of an enigma and today may not be the day but it would be good to see something like his best again.

Verdict

An extremely tough race to get your teeth in to with so many having to be given a chance. The best thing to look at seems to be a horse that is known to handle the ground, seems well handicapped, is aged 4-5 in tradition with the race and is drawn low, with the course usually draining better on the far side. Favourite Tariq Too fits all those bills and should go well but so too should BONNIE BRAE and WHITE FROST who run for the first time this year and have largely progressive profiles. Both have won on soft before and are well drawn for shrewd yards. Pastoral Player would have to put up an almighty effort off 107 to win here. Global Village has a lot going for him and ran a career best last time out. King Of Jazz has an ideal profile for this but has to prove he handles the ground while so too does Lightning Cloud but if they do handle it then big shows are likely. Hawkeyethenoo may find defending his crown tough off a higher mark and he may not have an ideal draw while neither does Excellent Guest and that could hinder their chances. Lincoln winner Brae Hill may go well again after going close last year though has a steep mark to overcome. Cool Marble is a fascinating runner and should have his fans while others such as Benandonner, Fathsta and Nasri are well handicapped to get involved if taking to the conditions. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Mabait who is extremely well handicapped if bouncing back to some form.

Advice

Bonnie Brae 1.5pts e/w @12/1 generally

White Frost 1.5pts e/w @12/1 generally

 

 

1:35 M&S Money Handicap

The conditions are extremely testing out there and it is vital that you need a horse that stays well and goes on this ground. There’s not many that fit the bill in the first as others are having their first run back and may also not be up to peak fitness, while there is actually only 6 runners now after non-runners. Absinthe looks a rock solid option after good handicap form last year while he has also been running over hurdles for Donald McCain, albeit with mixed success. It was a promising debut for King’s Warrior at Doncaster last time and although up 4lb looks likely to go well here. Many felt Robemaker was an eyecatcher last time when not getting the clearest of runs but he simply summed up what he is usually like. He has won on soft before but is a risky proposition. Call To Reason was in behind that day and ran an absolute shocker but she was in good form before that. She has the trip to prove but did win her maiden on soft and if bouncing back could be a danger. Mark Johnston surprisingly has the two outsiders here and although Oceanway has it to prove on this ground, THE BELLS O PEOVER doesn’t. He hacked up last year on soft and has been running on polytrack and in the snow since. A return to turf will suit this front runner and with no real pace in this race at all, he could easily get a lead and not be for catching, especially since he stays extremely well (won over 1m4f) and with Franny Norton on too who rides this course very well.

Advice – The Bells O Peover 1.5pts e/w @14/1 William Hill

 

2:05 Betfair Huxley Stakes

There looks a bit of value in this race as i’m not convinced by Questioning or Hunter’s Light. Questioning sets the standard on form this year and he showed he handled heavy with a 2nd to Penitent last time but he does have the trip to prove and his rating is a little flattering for me. Hunter’s Light hasn’t been seen since winning a listed event on the a/w but he only clung on that day and was slightly lucky to win. He may well improve as a 4yo and won on his only try on soft but at the prices others are preferred. I love Wigmore Hall to pieces but he didn’t particularly take to the soft in the Prix Ganay last time and he has to lump a penalty for his group 1 win last year. Marcret is the one that has come in for support and although his form is very hard to judge being the first time we see him over here but on Meydan form he may have to improve. But he loves the ground and the first time hood may work too. GLEN’S DIAMOND has been a little flat since his win at this meeting last year but he showed a bit of promise again in Meydan and he may be all the better for it. He will relish today’s conditions over this course too and in what will be a real stamina test, he should be going well at the end. Richard Fahey’s other runner Myplacelater has been a little flat in two starts since joining the yard but it wouldn’t surprise if she popped up somewhere some time and she also has won on soft before.

Advice – Glen’s Diamond 2pts win @10/1 Stan James

 

3:05 Boodles Diamond Eternity Handicap

Switzerland runs here for the horses to follow list but he was poor on his last start when it seemed it happened all too quick for him. Stepping to this trip should be better and although he has the ground to prove, i’d just about be willing to give him a small chance. He does have to find ground with Evervescent who looks good value as that was a decent race at Musselburgh. Gabrial should come on for his run in behind that day but still has the trip and ground to prove and is far too short. The penny may have dropped with Glen Moss who should go well while Seanie is another interesting runner form Ireland. Arnold Lane could improve for the step up in trip but in what will again be a real stamina test it may not suit.

Switzerland (Horses to follow List 2012)

David Livingston

Impressed near the end of last season with a solid 3rd behind Power in the National Stakes and then beat the decent Akeed Mofeed on heavy in the Beresford, a race which usually throws up a decent horse. However disappointed on his seasonal reappearance when going off a 7/4 favourite but could only finish 5th of 7 in the Ballysax, his first try at 1m2f, Call To Battle in 3rd. Due to come on for that run but does need to and has to prove the trip more than anything. Ground fine though.

Call To Battle

Ended the year with a listed victory in Ireland in the Eyrefield, beating Alla Speranza who ran well in the Guineas at the weekend. Ran on well when in front of David Livingston and finding only Light Heavy too good in the Ballysax. Won his maiden on yielding to soft and should be okay in the step up to 1m4f. Solid chance.

Mickdaam

Form moved up a gear in Meydan with a listed victory and a 2nd and 4th in the UAE Guineas and Derby respectively. Given a rating of 112 for that 4th which is easily the best on show. Ran well back in the UK when just being beaten by Rougemont in the valuable Timeform 3-y-o Trophy but the form in behind isn’t great and the horse he lost to isn’t a world beater either. Has the extra trip to prove and major worry about him handling the ground.

Minimise Risk

Ran a promising debut when 2nd to today’s Cheshire Oaks n/r Zaina but made no mistake at the second attempt when all out to beat Uriah Heep over 1m3f on soft. That rival could be decent but the 3rd has let the form down since. The extra furlong will suit and the ground should be fine but he will need to find a lot more to challenge here.

Model Pupil

Promise when running on behind dual winner Rewarded and Craven favourite Mighty Ambition in a Newbury maiden, form of which certainly will look stronger at the end of the year. Stepped up though over 1m2f at Newmarket when fighting past the very decent Shantaram after both travelled well throughout. The 3rd and 5th have franked the form significantly, both winning a maiden by a country mile since and this rival seems to have far more to give. Has  prove he handles the ground but he should be able to and he also should stay. Looks the value of the race.

Verdict

An intriguing renewal with Ireland’s challenge looking notable with Call To Battle and David Livingston who both were last seen in the Ballysax. The former finished 2nd that day while the latter who went off favourite could only manage 5th and although you can excuse that run, it’s easier to go with the John Oxx colt over the two. However both haven’t set the world alight over this trip yet and on value grounds, MODEL PUPIL looks a good option to go with. He did only win his maiden by a nose but he did beat the very smart Shantaram and the 3rd and 5th have emphatically franked the form since. He should stay the trip and go on the ground and he could be anything. Mickdaam has shown the strongest form of these due to his Meydan exertions but judged by his 3-y-o Trophy run it is hard for him to transform that in the UK. For one that has a lot of speed this may not suit while ground is a major worry. Minimise Risk concludes the field but he will need to find more even though he should stay and go on the ground.

Advice – Model Pupil 3pts win @5/1 Coral