2:40 – Qipco Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)
The Falmouth is potentially a messy race with a lack of a front runner and also the ground going against plenty of them, notably the two standout performers on form. Both Sky Lantern and Integral want better ground or in Integral’s case is unproven on ground as soft as it could potentially be tomorrow. Both in fact may not even run and Richard Hannon came out today to say their filly wouldn’t take part in soft conditions. Even with or without them, I want to be looking elsewhere.
Rizeena is certainly not the answer for me as she won a horribly messy Coronation Stakes last time where she used her smart turn of foot and was the benefit of a great ride by Ryan Moore. All her runs at Newmarket, three of them albeit on the Rowley Mile, has seen her beat and that, plus the ground which she goes on but is definitely not ideal, means she’s readily opposed. PURR ALONG would have been the value fancy without the rain here and the fact that she goes on anything, when he rivals don’t, gives her an even better chance. She was well beaten in this last year but has looked a far better filly since joining Johnny Murtagh and she really impressed when winning on her return at the Curragh.
She was a good third in the Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot when behind Integral but she had to make a lot of ground up in comparison to the front two who were always prominent. There’s four lengths between her and the favourite on that evidence but in a race that will be run a lot different tactically and on softer ground, I think that margin will diminish considerably. I’d have thought Jamie Spencer would have had the chance to choose over her and Kiyoshi so it’s positive he has gone for her as Kiyoshi herself is respected, particularly as connections have always felt a bit of cut in the ground will really suit her. Certify could struggle to settle again and her and Peace Burg have disappointed of late.
Advice – Purr Along 2.5pts win @8/1 generally
3:15 – Betfred Mobile Heritage Handicap (Bobis Race) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105)
A cracking 3yo handicap and again the ground will influence the result significantly. When the rain arrived today and after looking at the forecast to see there’s more of it CHARLES MOLSON instantly stuck out as the bet of the race. I backed him last time at York when he came to win his race but a mix of how the race panned out, being on the wrong side of the track and the ground was what got him beat for me. I have been waiting for him at this trip on softer ground as he definitely seems to prefer it on evidence I’ve seen. His run in the Coral Sprint Trophy strongly suggested he had a big handicap in him and Henry Candy is a master of bringing these sprinters along. The early prices have gone but 15/2 still seems a fair price.
That York race as mentioned already sees loads of these represented again, though the winner Sea The Sun is worth taking on on this ground and up 7lb. With Gamesome and Eastern Impact now not taking part, i’m going to side with KICKBOXER here for an e/w bet. He beat Golden Steps at Leicester off 85 earlier in the year on soft ground and though that rival looks more streetwise now and is better off at the weights, he still beat him quite convincingly and there shouldn’t be the different in price there is. Sine then he ran third in that York race and won easily at Ripon, while he didn’t seem to see out 7f when last seen at Chester. He could have more to offer, particularly in these conditions and is worth a try at 16/1.
Royal Seal is off a 6lb penalty after winning last week, High On Life goes for a four-timer and Golden Steps is an exciting proposition too who is better weighted and potentially more improved than when beaten by Kickboxer earlier in the season. Greeb wants further for me to be winning off this mark, while Remember is one I’d be really interested in because she won really well here two weeks ago and the handicapper has been lenient, but she ran a shocker on her only soft ground start at the end of last year and that was the excuse used too. Suzi’s Connossieur looks to have a squeak at a price of the rest.
Advice – Charles Molson 3pts win @15/2 generally
Kickboxer 1pt e/w @16/1 Coral
2:20 – totepool Summer Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)
Probably not the strongest of races but plenty of interest, particularly Ladies Are Forever who has won this race twice in the past three years. Gracia Directa won the race for Germany in between those victories and they are represented by Emerald Star this time, whose domestic form is strong and her win at Lingfield over 7f last time was quite taking. The step down in trip is a question mark on this fast ground especially. Joyeuse needs a strong pace to aim at to see her at best over this trip and she got it on her penultimate start at Haydock.
I think she’s better judged on her second at the Curragh last time out. That Haydock race saw PERFECT BLESSINGS finish a really good third considering she set that frantic pace up front. Since then she’s run really well in a race that has worked out very nicely at Sandown, running on for fifth. 6f seems her trip though and she seems versatile enough regarding ground. Her form that includes Evita Peron and Penny Drops seems really strong now and though she comes into it rated just 94, a stone lower than Joyeuse, she can rate a lot higher than that and 25/1 seems a very big price tomorrow.
Advice – Perfect Blessings 1pt e/w @25/1 generally
3:30 – Groceryaid Chairman´s Charity Cup (Handicap Stakes) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
This looks all about King’s Fete in all honesty who was a taking winner of a very strong Sandown maiden in which the runner-up also runs tomorrow, the third is a rock solid yardstick and the fourth New Story has won very impressively since. He gets weight all round being a 3yo and the step up in trip should really suit him. That saying it is a big field and a good one at that too and there is little appeal in his price of 2/1 against more seasoned handicappers that are much more used to the test that will be put to them tomorrow.
Mighty Yar is a lot less exposed than most of those and should enjoy this ground more, though both that race and the one at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day are working out. He looks a bit of a laboured type for me and at the prices I do like SAVED BY THE BELL for the four-timer. He was more than a cosy winner of his last start over C&D, where the pace was very ordinary and I thought he did extremely well to get his head in front there. A 6lb is fair and on the basis of that run shouldn’t be enough to stop him being competitive. Again this could well be a race where the favourite proves all his class but at a much bigger price in comparison, I do like the David O’Meara horse.
A forecast is a fair bet too to be honest and I would really be sweet on the selection if the Stoute horse wasn’t in attendance but he’s a good price at nearly double figure odds. There’s little else in the race I’m worrying about, though Nicholascopernicus is a decent e/w price considering he ran so well at Windsor last time. That race worked out perfectly for him however and this is unlikely to with potential competition for the lead. Lahaag has had his chances while Pearl Castle, up 6lb for his win in the Ladies race here, will like the ground and has a bit more to give.
Advice – Saved By The Bell 2pts win @10/1 BetVictor
4:05 – Acturis Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)
Another really good race and the market is finding it hard to see a standout here, rightly so too. Curragh (and blog) hero Line Of Reason could well get the strong pace and fast ground he relishes again though he’s never run over 5f and it’s always a very different test for these hold-up performers. Another Wise Kid also represents Paul Midgley who is having a great season. He’s a consistent type and simply bumped into one in the bang in-form Robot Boy last time. This is similarly competitive though.
A bit of rain may help Top Boy, a winner here last time in a good race, getting a smart ride by 7lb claimer Adam McLean. Dale Swift is on tomorrow and an all-round 11lb swing with no claim makes things a bit tougher but he’ll definitely be thereabouts. There seems to be plenty of pace drawn high but there’s enough low, particularly with Stone Of Folca and Da’Quonde. Graphic Guest was the fancy here but has been pulled out due to ground. Instead do not be surprised if the old boy BORDERLESCOTT ran well here as it’s the first time since his Musselburgh run that he’s got his ground. He needs it rattling fast these days and he gets it here off top weight, down 3lb from his last run. I honestly think he can run to a mark about 8lb-10lb higher here with these conditions and the 20/1 definitely appeals e/w
Advice – Borderlescott 1pt e/w @20/1 Paddy Power
4:15 – Cushman & Wakefield Fillies´ Handicap (for the John Travers Memorial Trophy) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)
Again this is a really good race considering sometimes races such as this can be quite weak affairs. Rewaaya is favourite after winning a maiden last time, building on her fourth here in what was a good race behind Marsh Daisy. She does seem to have a bit of attitude about her (flashed her tail last time) but she is clearly talented and respected. Again Swan Lakes broke her duck last time, definitely in a less facile manner though. She straightforward but this Dalakhani filly already looks in need of further.
I was somewhat surprised to see both those ahead of ARABIAN COMET in the market who herself has looked a bit inexperienced so far but is really improving for her Racing. I was taken by her when she thrashed Sir Guy Porteous over a mile and that horse ran second off 91 today after winning twice since. Arabian Comet stepped up in trip but could only finish third at York, but the winner Connecticut is a potential future group performer in my eyes.
She made her challenge furthest back and widest of all and lost little in defeat. She didn’t go up for that but was due to rise 4lb and more could be to come now upped another two furlongs. There seems plenty of pace in the race, notably from Lady Pimpernel and Nullarbor Sky, and that should suit the selection too. Dangers are Kallisha, a horse who I liked judged on her maiden performance. She was unlucky in an Oaks trial after that at Lingfield. Tioga Pass won well at Goodwood latest though that was a modest race and this is harder.
Advice – Arabian Comet 2.5pts win @6/1 generally